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Applied Materials, Inc. Message Board

  • whynot327 whynot327 Nov 9, 2006 9:35 AM Flag

    >>Susquehanna Negative on AMAT & NVLS

    - Susquehanna Financial Group's Semi analyst Dan Berenbaum notes that with C3Q earnings season just about wrapped up, they continue to see more bad news than good coming down the pike - importantly, they do not believe that equipment stocks are fully discounting the severity of the near-term risk. Firm's checks suggest that orders at large equipment companies are already on a slippery downward slope, and the news is steadily getting worse. Firm sees slowing order and shipment patterns as simply a reflection of deteriorating semiconductor industry fundamentals, where a classic combination of excess capacity build and normalizing demand will drive IC unit production back down to (or below) long-term trend-line. They expect the effects will be evident when AMAT reports F4Q06 (October) results in the form of below-expectation sales and bookings numbers. Firm also foresees a disappointing NVLS mid-Q update at the beginning of December, and would not be surprised to hear about chipmaker plans to potentially idle production lines during the holiday season.

    Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) prepares to pay the piper. Very recent checks indicate that industry bellwether AMAT will struggle to hit F4Q06 (October) revenue guidance and will likely miss order guidance.

    Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) is firm's favorite short - expect the mid-Q update to be a negative catalyst. While NVLS reported a generally solid September quarter, upside came primarily from internal operational improvements, which the firm sees as running out of steam. Lacking a strong product cycle in the midst of a declining order environment, they see downside risk to both December quarter order guidance of flat to down 10% and 1H07 consensus revenue and earnings expectations

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    • Lets forget what Dan said! I remember he was so bullish on SEMI in year 2000.

      Analysts are standing too close to the Wall street. They are always following the trend. When the trend is in downward, they will keep thinking down down down.

      I know this guy who works in San Francisco. He is nothing special. Do what you should do and get away from those analysts! This is a 100 stock someday, trust me, I just came back from the future.

    • Bunch of BS. AMAT has been buying back shares at a blistering pace it is so undervalued. They not only have the # but AMAT is going to blow out the #. I guess CSCO's business is not enough evidence for you. The SOX is ready for a HUGE move.

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