Current Margins Demonstrate the Advantage of the SYNM process
The current market conditions prove how competitive the SYNM process is, and why REGI should be worried. Right now SME has a gross margin of -$0.19, and a net margin of -$0.49. If REGI is continuing to produce they are going to get hammered this quarter. SYNM on the other hand buys the cheaper feedstock and sells a premium product. Right now I'm showing SYNM has a gross margin of $0.85, and a net margin of $0.30. Bottom line, at full production SYNM can make a substantial margin while REGI and SME producers are getting killed.
This is why I say SYNM should shut down production. The losses BioDiesel is taking right now is unsustainable. They are bankrupting themselves hoping for that tax credit. Just look at these numbers. Biodiesel is in a death spiral.
Production of methyl esters was 13.1 million litres in Q4 2012 compared to 15.9 million litres in Q4 2011
Sales were $16.8 million in Q4 2012 compared to $23.0 million in Q4 2011
Operating loss was $10.9 million in Q4 2012 compared to an operating income of $1.6 million in Q4 2011
Operating loss prior to non-cash items(1) was $9.7 million in Q4 2012 compared to an operating income prior to non-cash items of $2.8 million in Q4 2011
I have never believed that "the street" understands the differences from one plant to another...theyre all painted with the same brush...and, of course, DF's "erratic" production, coupled with mgmts silence, doesnt help at all...but y'all know that...
BTW, to keep this industry alive, RINs must be priced to keep SME profitable. SYNM has over $0.60 margin advantage over SME at these depressed RIN values, and that advantage grows as RINs increase due to the 1.7 vs 1.5 RIN advantage.