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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. Message Board

  • rotsevnilio1 rotsevnilio1 Sep 16, 2010 10:58 AM Flag

    ADA-ES Valuation Model

    Here is more detail on the valuation model. Notice that;

    - CyClean is 9 yr PV of the two units in-place today; no additional units considered

    - ACI systems is PV of the build-out over 2011-2014 for MACT on powerplants; nothing considered for cement or industrial, and no on-going value considered after 2014

    - ADA/CS assumes a 12x P/E, financing as suggested, margins at low end of mgmt assertion, 25% equity share for ADA-ES

    model is here

    Bottom line, I don't see why this is not a $15 stock today, rising to mid $20s by 2013

    On ADA/CS, while earnings are not cash to ADA-ES (absent a dividend to ADA/CS owners), those cash earnings likely reinvested as equity to expand Red River and build ND

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    • Here is an update on ADA-ES valuation model/forecast. Easier to see assumptions and inputs. Conclusion is the same: if Dr NeverDeliver can deliver his own forecasts on ADA-CS, ACI systems, cyclean, "enhanced coal", etc. then this is a home run. I don't even bother trying to value "carbon capture" as it would be a speculative waste of time.

      Here is the link

      comments welcome

    • Belly,

      No offense, but you didn't answer my question. I understand your opinion of Obama. Bush proved he would have done anything he could to not regulate anything, let alone mercury emissions. So, my question is, who needs to be president to get mercury legislation for the power utilities put into law?

    • ok, first I am very dissapointed in the class. I post this well thought out forecast and valuation, and there is not one single critique, commentary, enhancement/adjustment; nothing

      You guys have enough interest in this company to browse this dumb msg board, I post a detailed bottom-up valuation by "asset", and nobody has a single thought?

      Come on class, if you don't start raising your hands and commenting then I am going to start calling on people.

      Nobody notices that the present value of the income stream from the two cyclean machines is worth the current share price? which means that the share price today assigns zero value to the investment in ADA carbon solutions, refined coal, the ramp in ACI systems (assuming mact), or anything else these Bozos might accomplish.

      Now, that's a bit oversimplified because I have not "valued" the SG&A and R&D in this model, so clearly there is some value leakage there. But still it is really astonishing to me that the stock trades for the PV of the two cyclean machines. nothing more.

      Could that be justified? I suppose.

      What if the Norit suit and/or the dilution from ECP effectively wipes out ADA-ES economic interest in the plant. Perhaps that is what Mr Market is saying.

      Refined coal worth zero? Perhaps. Dr NeverDeleiver has never delivered on any previous "opportunities" so I guess Mr Market is giving Dr NeverDeliver the Bronx Cheer and telling him to "show me the money". That might be fair.

      Anyways, class, wake up! Or I am going to start assigning homework

    • Oblahba

    • He provides no leadership? I assume you are talking about "Dr NeverDeliver"

    • It's simple. He provides NO LEADERSHIP. All his political capital was spent foisting HEALTHCARE ON US. He speaks in PLATITUDES and nothing more.

    • Say what? Bush had 8 years to get it done and all his administration did was put up road block after roadblock. At least that was the reason Dr Never Deliver gave for 8 years as to why the $3 billion market never materialized and why there weren't any activated carbon sales. Now your saying Obama is the problem. Please share with us who needs to be president for this $3 billion mercury abatement market to be created?

    • Now, now. Don't all start drinking Rot's Kool Aid. Do you really things will change while Oblahba Oblahba is President?

    • Bart- Welcome to the dark side. You've been converted.

    • lack of volume=lack of interest,right at $5 support...they need to start delivering on promises and 'show' improving financials--don't see much trade on expectations until they can show the market definitive results.Keeping fingers crossed that this Q those results begin showing.

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