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Alpha Natural Resources, inc. c Message Board

  • getalife443 getalife443 Jan 30, 2013 12:30 PM Flag

    Ben Stevens......what in the world????

    happened to coal stocks today after BTU's rocking report yesterday??????

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    • This is whats up. Ben would at least partially agree I bet. BTU downgraded to sell today. One day after earnings. I have been long ANR but finallly realizing coal is dead for US companies. We have competition from Africa, South America, nat gas. etc and they dont need to cut production(Africa, SA) because they make money at these low prices(not nat gas). Only have to pay workers $5 an hr probably. BTU had a loss of 1 billion. ANR is losing money. The thing is with no real turn around in site for US coal companies they will continue to lose money. Us longs really have to start wondering if ANR can survive. Lets face it. A company can lose money only for so long. I am worried and have 6000 shares at $10.20 One more thing. Stock investors buy companies based on their ability to earn anywhere from 1 to 3 years out. ANR won't be around 3 years from now if they are still losing money. And since no one is buying right now ie pps going down, then the outlook must not be that good for 1 to 3 years.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to jheidt31
      • what the heck are you talking about? do you see the write off RIO took in Mozamique? Where is all the money they are making in Africa? There's no infrastructure - and that is in GOOD political climates. Now Cerrejon is on strike, they export 30mm tons a year. China - Aus. is at $95 and costs at 80. Look at Europe, 85 for a ton of comparable Appalachian coal, selling for 68 contracted here. The US most definitely CAN and does compete, and that is why exports are increasing to records last year.

        You talk about these companies surviving with adjusted EBITDA for BTU of 1.8mm, and 850-1000mm for ANR in 2013? Capex is 500 amnd 300 for each, giving fcf over a billion two and 500mm respectively. what about coal increasing to 38% and gas 29%, from 50/50 in the early summer? if coal is 38%, how companies projecting increased domestic coal use next year expected to go bankrupt? head scratcher..

        Sentiment: Buy

      • coal is not the hottest investment strategy within the natural resources at this time. Politics probably have more to do with that than anything. But Obama will not be President forever. The USA has the most reliable transportatiion system to get coal to whomever. The "chaos" and lack of transportation in Africa make their coal uncertain. We need coal exports to help balance the trade deficit. Obama would be wise to lighten up a bit and start to use some of his supposed "financial genius" he has and make coal work for the United States. To say that all USA coal companies will be out of business in three years seems unlikely.

      • You really need to get your facts straight. They took a paper loss for writing down their assets. There ebidta and cash flow were both very postitive. Even in the last qtr ANR reported postitive ebitda and cash flow... The balance sheet write downs are a non-event.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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