How long can Timberline be held down? Why would anyone sell at this level with so much near term potential? Butte Highlands is slated for production early 2012/1Q. The company has stated they expect the Hardrock permit approval before the end of the year. South Eureka resources are at 500,000 ounces and increasing. The latest drilling results show expansion of the drilling campaign another 15,000ft. Even though September was the worst month for gold in 3 years, it was still the best quarter this year in terms of price rise %. Gold Season begins this quarter and many analysts are standing firm in forecast for gold to reach $2000.00, we'll see! Timberline/SMD have worked too hard to give up on them now IMO! Hold Strong and Good Luck!
10,000 tons bulk sample at 0.27 ounces gold with 88% recovery at 1675 gold is $4M revenues net just from the bulk sample.
10,000 tons will take at least some weeks to take out and good feeder material for mill optimization. Sounds like production before production. We may already be within 2 months of production?
From TLR website:
'Timberline does not foresee any material permitting or regulatory impediments to BHJV receiving its Hard Rock Operating permit later this year and advancing into commercial gold production in early 2012. In August 2010, BHJV received its Amended Exploration Permit authorizing underground development including 6,700 feet of ramps, underground drilling, site infrastructure construction, and the extraction of a 10,000-ton bulk sample (scheduled for Q3 2011). All surface facilities required for commercial production have been completed and are located on private lands owned by BHJV'.
I think that projecting extremely bad finish (like “if we are 6-8 months out on the permit then this company is history”) is unnecessary exaggeration, the same way as taking anything that comes from management as the best thing ever made for shareholders.
The reality is that this sector has bad (i.e. shareholder unfriendly) management, but they rarely kill companies completely. There are many ways to shear shareholders and still keeping management positions (salary and perks). For example, some company could run stock price to ground and then make “private placement” (friends and relatives) at extremely low share price few months before reprieve (e.g. production start); it happens often enough. The only practical point here is that one shouldn’t believe that management (any micro-cap miner) works for shareholders and don’t count on any help from this department (take your profits and run as soon as you can).
More specifically to TLR case, they still have abilities to raise funds even if BH production is delayed (the latter is quite possible). Besides selling shares, they can also JV (option out) Lookout project (drastically reducing expenditures) or they can sell/reduce their interest in BH (possibly, selling it to the same parties who bought drilling division). These are not nice choices (for shareholders), but it happens often enough (see above). Certainly, the best outcome would be sector turnaround and getting BH permit this year; together it could cause share price recovery and company could raise funds by selling shares at more palatable (for shareholders) levels.
we needed to get the permit before you sell the drilling business.
If we get the permit next month we should be all right, but if we are 6-8 months out on the permit than this company is history.
The closer we get to that TDI sale date without the permit the lower the SP goes.
The reason they sold TDI is the convertible debt is due.
It has to be paid. They already extended it once.
They used their drilling proceeds to expand Eureka.
They should have used the cash from TDI operations and paid off the convertible debt and kept the drilling business IMO.
It's a classic case of horse before the cart IMO.
U can't run before u walk.
Hopefully it works out for us. We will know soon enough.
I think TLR is expecting to get the permit right before the sale of TDI goes through we will see.
waikiki...You see, and I thought you only put on the game face Monday through Friday, LOL! Sure it's a waiting game, it always has been until production starts(HRP approval). The insider deal, as you put it, has it's benefits though, drills are in demand now, there will be no waiting(availability)and cash. Besides, once production starts at Butte, the cash flow from there will dominate any potential revenues TDI offered without the liabilities(employee benefits, insurance ect...)! With an exploration/expansion taking place now at South Eureka and ensured to continue, I'm o.k. with the deal, but I would be much happier with a permit in hand, than a bird, LOL!
waikiki...The deal is not done, it was a LOI, Timberline will still see last Q's profit! Also, there may still be another month before the deal actually closes, another months profits. I would agree we need the HRP to make this deal look alot smarter, but there is cash on hand even with another delay now, heaven forbid! Time will tell if this was wise decision, but IMO, South Eureka needs to be developed! Looks like Greece just made a billion dollar gold deal, they sold mining rights and the airport could be next, whatever works for everyone!
waikiki...You forgot to mention...Sale of Timberline Drilling =
I know you don't expect anyone to work without compensation, do you? As a shareholder, I expect to be rewarded when production starts or there is a sale of a developed project, but I'm not a daytrader, I'm long! They can make deals at country clubs, golf courses or at a football game for all I care, just as long as they have the shareholders best interest and company success at the forefront of the decisions.
Icdlife...I can only give you my opinion as to why management decided it was best to sell Timberline Drilling. I think it was part of a strategy under the conditions they find themselves in. When it comes to costs, they differ, depending on type of drills, mine development ect...! The cash and drilling benefits retained will ensure continued results. There are other benefits like less liabilities and focus, not to mention being debt free! Selling may have made some weak hands sell IMO, but it's the risk before production and a bad month for gold prices that worked against the shareprice IMO. I think management has to adjust to conditions/situations, just like any other business trying to be successful, there is no straight line to follow. I trust management knows what needs to be done to bring Timberline out of the shadows, near production at Butte and South Eureka development is what we are buying into here. It's risky, no doubt about it, but it comes down to speculation for ultimate success IMO.
The stock is being manipulated and has for a while.
Good news does nothing for the share price. Gold went to $1900.00 an ounce and the stock could not stay above .80 cents.
It's market manipulation at it's best plain and simple.
When the crooks decide they want to flip the trade and let it go higher they will.
You can bet they will be on the long side of it too.
It's total BS if you ask me and it's getting tiresome.
I don't care what people think the short interest is those posted numbers can't be relied on.
All I know is this stock is being held down for some reason.
It's totally obvious.
mfzoom...Everyone is frustrated! Being so close to production and resources increasing at South Eureka, make watching the deteriorative shareprice tough to watch. What can we do? Sell? Not this close to production status! Buy more? Whenever possible, times are tough, how much does one want to risk? Holding strong for those with Iron Stomachs is the final option! One day, when the approval news hits the wires, we won't look back. I still like the Timberline plan all the way, just not the shareprice!
How about other couple hundred stocks in the sector? Are they manipulated too?
The whole sector is slaughtered because of risk aversion becoming prevalent on market when times are bad. It's the same thing that happened three years ago, i.e. it's fresh enough to be identifiable.
Icdlife...I've learned along the way, but I'm no expert. There are others more knowledgeable than myself here on the subject. That said, open pit heap leach is not going to take near as long compared to building a mine, the costs are much less expensive also. It depends on depths of resources, terrain, access, permitting ect... being a Junior Explorer, I'm not ruling out catching the eye of a major with enough proven resources! My best guess is 1-3 years depending on company planning/strategy.