ODP had a good day and I don't see the end in
site. Here's why:
1. P/E is about half of what
SPLS is, which trades between 30-35.
2. ODP has
MUCH stronger internet sales with momentum behind
them.This is VERY significant because there is really as
yet no dominant net retailer of office supplies and
ODP has a very efficient distribution mechanism--more
efficient than SPLS. This makes it an internet play too,
without the speculation because they are PROFITABLE...if
they traded at 500 times earnings like some of the NET
stocks, the price would be out of sight, yet they do have
the potential to dominate the category on the
internet, and there's really little or nothing on the
horizon to beat them there.
3. ODP's cost of sales is
lower and could trade at 40 before it would equal SPLS'
4. Favorable ratings.
6. Good earnings, above street expectations.
Aggressive expansion which drives up profitability because
newer stores do better. Competitors not on this
8. Very strong contract/commercial AND catalog
9. FIRST store in MANHATTAN opens Monday. Brokers
have the opportunity to see this place firsthand for
the first time.
10. Option trades are heavy
calls--very bullish and no put volume.
11. Increase on a
down day for the market with heavy volume pushing it
I screwed up and dumped this stock at 20 1/4.
Bought back in today at 22. I think it will be above 23
tomorrow and should toy with 27 by the end of the week. I
also think that SPLS will continue to fluctuate around
30-33. However, I would look for ODP to pass it within
What do you think? Did I miss
SPLS has a much better PR machine. ODP may never
get over the opinion developed during the ODP/SPLS
merger that SPLS management was superior and ODP
management was inferior. ODP is due for a bounce after the
post split consolidation. Many things should have
moved this stock considerably like the 768% increase in
internet sales, this is a stock that won't make you rich,
but over time will make you a good return. Long 1,500
The opening in Manhattan Monday should help the
The Viking merger brought a damn good management team
on board, including Bruce Nelson. This team has a
history of controlling costs and you can see it in just
last quarter's numbers: ODP was outsold by SPLS by
about 500 million and still put 50 million more on the
bottom line. That's good management...knowing how to
I think the slingshot effect is
happening right now. Plenty of support at 22...as evidenced
by afterhours trades at that level. The stock dipped
after the favorable recommendations which is typical,
only to rebound with a sharp spike upward as more
people realize what opportunity there is. That is what
we are seeing now. I'll be keeping my fingers
crossed and I've got my money where my mouth is...
sonds like great PR! also the $2,500 donation
didn't hurt either....
looks to me like the share
price closed just barely north of the 50 day moving
average....I think BARELY counts!
momentum and OBV have
picked up very nicely, but I'm supprised that
accumulation hasn't picked up as well.....don't get me wrong,
it is rising SOME but not nearly as sharply as
volume and momentum would suggest....the thought that
comes to mind is that many of the "trend chasers" are
not in yet as the trend hasn't yet been
the cross over's still haven't crossed, the 20 day
moving average has flattened, the 13 is still heading
downward, but the 9 day has risen SHARPLY.....of course the
shorter average is usually a shorter term indicator and
subject to more "false signals", but given all the other
good indications, and especially the close above the
50 day average, it looks encouraging that the trend
is developing.....I'd still like to see the 20 day
average turn upward, but I think that is
(really, I like to see the 20 day cross the 50 day
average....I think clearstation uses the 13 & 50 day, but I
like the more conservative 20/50....it takes a little
longer to call a trend, but usually fewer false
stochastics, again, look pretty toppy.....but where I've been
calling for pullbacks on high stochastics, another TA guy
tells me that stochastics can be a weak indicator if
many of the others are strong....for that matter, any
ONE indicator can be a weak indication if it is the
only one that is weak....
but it looks like the
indicatators I follow are moving in the upward direction, even
tho some are still(technically) negative.... (if that
makes any sense)
as for the general
market....all I can say is WOW! I guess Ralph Accampora was
right back when he was saying dow 11,500 but I was
still saying dow 10,500 would be tops.....must be more
liquidity than I ever thought!.....Ralph, you da man!
(again, as if he ever read anything I ever
typed)......really wish now that I had held on to those AXP
anyhow, good luck!
looks like things are going well with ODP!
Unfortunately, I haven't jumped back onboard yet....sounds like
the thought on the board is that ODP is getting ready
to soar....is that your opinion? Looks like I missed
my opportunity in the $19 range, just didn't have
the cash at the time...ya know?
It's not too late to get in. ALOT of people were
buying where those who were wed to the moving average
were selling...this would tend to show support
building at this level. Read some of my erlier posts for
reasons why the stock has not topped.
yeah, I know!.....equity rich and cash
poor.....not a bad long term stragegy, but can cause some
short term pain......
maybe the bottom is past,
but I still don't think ODP has confirmed an uptrend
yet.....once the trend is established, I think the technical
guys will pile in, then soon after the momentum guys
will jump on board.....
so, to answer your
question, yes....I think ODP is going up from here.....
Last time I checked, it was a long way from 23 to
And if I remember correctly, ODP was
around 24 after the split? -- in reality, it hasn't
hasn't gone up at all. I will start to feel lots and
lots and lots better when ODP cracks
However, I do think the the positive effects of the Viking
merger are starting to add to the momentum. If ODP is
ever realized as a value then it should be taken to at
least the same level.
Profitz seems to be right
most of the time, at least, I like to read his
Let's hope this dog hunts before to long.