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AVANIR PHARMACEUTICL (AVN-R) Message Board

  • Theczecho98 Theczecho98 Sep 19, 2002 9:46 AM Flag

    Obviously

    There is someone liquidating a position. If it is one of the institutional shareholders of record, this would be another indictment of Yak.
    The question to worry about is why is someone liquidating. Have they heard bad news, or are they simply leaving in disgust? Either scenario is bad, but the former would piss me off. If bad news has leaked to someone, then the company has a lot of questions to answer, and I'll be one of those asking questions. Granted the market is in the toilet, but AVN is not one of the companies that have bleak earnings outlooks. AVN is not a chip maker in an environmemt where most already have PCs. AVN doesn't have an over capacity of fiber optic lines. AVN doesn't make cell phones for a world already over saturated with hand held devices.
    AVN does have a compelling story.
    Unfortunately, AVN appears to be run by a clueless academic, who is destroying his company with his incompetence.
    $1.27 a share is an absolute joke, but a painful reality at this point.
    More companies have been driven into the ground by incompetent mamagement than have been wasted by a loust business idea. It is up to the BOD to take control of this situation before it spins even more seriously out of control.

    RK

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    • My speculation.

      Most investors in AVN are probably also investors in other biotech stocks, including MEDX and ABGX. Most biotech investors are in the position of seeing their equities melt away. The selling of AVN may be forced by changing positions in other stocks. Same forces keep buying low. I know this is somewhat cliche, but it makes sense to me.

      I put more weight into this possibility than in the idea that AVN is doing poorly because of business issues. Yes, things are developing more slowly than we want, but the direction is still positive.

      You make money by seeing the value that others don't see OR cannot take advantage of, because of circumstances. Both apply to Avn.

      Regards,
      TTB

      • 1 Reply to TarTiaboy
      • TTB,

        FWIW
        I have heard the specilaist is getting the sell orders from non-retail sources. He has shown large size offers in an attempt to find some interested buyers.

        I would agree with you that most holders of AVN are interested in MEDX and ABGX, though I myself no longer, nor any of AVN shareholders that I know have any shares of MEDX, ABGX, or PDLI. Also, the recent uptick in AVN's vol doesn't coincide with the other companies, except for ABGX, making new lows for the move as AVN has done.
        Smells like an institution dump to me.

        To say that things are developing slowly at AVN is a massive understatement in my opinion.
        Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty from proven companies in this environment, nevermind unproven ones like AVN.
        That to me is the crux of the problem.

        RK