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Infosys Limited Message Board

  • frnds21 frnds21 Sep 10, 2004 12:59 AM Flag

    CRASH SOON - $47..watch it..

    56 SEEMS TOP FOR NOW.

    47 SEEMS REALITY

    WATCH IT CRASH FROM 56 TO...53...51...49...47

    WILL BE 65 AND SHOULD BE...BUT ONLY BY YEAR END

    WATCH OUT...


    THIS FOR SURE IS NOT EVEN WORTH 50...SEE INDIAN RATE..IT 1630 SOMETHING WHICH MEANS INFY IN USA SHOULD BE AROUND $40

    THANKS

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    • I scanned the internet for some background on why there's such a discrepency between the Indian INFY and the ADRs. There was no direct information, but from what I gather there is effectively no way (especially for non-Indians) to arbitrage between the two securities. You can bet if that if you could arbitrage, people would be doing it and the security prices would fall in line.

      In addition, the pool of ADRs seems smaller than the Indian underlying. So, you got the whole world with LOTS of money chasing a relatively small pool of ADRs. Then you have a relatively poor country (India) with access to a large pool of the underlying security.

      If I've got the facts straight, supply and demand dictate that the valuation of the ADRs will probably always be significantly higher than the Indian underlying (and that seems to have been the case for as long as the ADRs have been around).

      I'm not saying that the ADRs can't take a dive, I just wouldn't use the value of the underlying Indian security as justification.

    • that's not a crash, bonehead.

      i have no doubt it will lose 30% or more from these levels.....but the timing is impossible to predict.....

      jbd.

    • Yes. You might be right .. 65$ is picked by some here based on Janney's price target upgrade from 56 to 65.
      My guess is that it might have been done for unloading. At Indian rupee rate of 46, 1660 rupees is worth hardly 36$. Look at the premium of this ADR.

      Definitely not a buy at this price.

 
INFY
16.57-0.05(-0.30%)Jul 22 4:01 PMEDT