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Molycorp, Inc Common Stock Message Board

  • ex.goldbug ex.goldbug Dec 3, 2012 2:29 PM Flag

    If only 10% of shorts covered, could have a $10 gain in one day

    Just a bit of good news would panic the shorts. So many of the "insects".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • No one knows the supply-demand price discovery of the market. 33 million shares are short. The simplest calculation is just a market cap one. Say there are 140 million shares. 33 million short is an extra 33 million shares. So the total is 173 million and the market cap of the shares held is actually $1.56 billion. If the market merely reassigned those investor dollars across the 140 million shares, the share price would be about $11.20. But the supply-demand price discovery mechanism is nowhere so simple. And it is possible that 3 million shares could be covered with the price falling or going up much further than your $10 prediction.

      With good news, people bid higher and ask higher. The market discovers the price. In the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term it is a weighing machine. If the fundamental value of the business increases solidly, the value of owning that business increases (given a background equivalent competing investment market).

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