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Molycorp, Inc Common Stock Message Board

  • rebekah May 9, 2013 12:15 PM Flag

    wheres the stock going after earnings?

    4? 10?

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    • It depends on the report. The report is substantive news that can be good or bad. The report is released after market close and the investor conference call is at 4:30.

      The expectation is that they will have results worse than Q4-2012, which was a loss of $0.45 per share. The more important aspect of the results is the cash cost at the end of Q1, and the cash cost expectations for Q2, and Q3 (including the information about facility completion). The next most important is the company forecast for demand, sales, and prices for the near term. They always get the question: it is now (5) weeks into Q2 ... what is the demand like so far? Next most important is the results from the quarter ... how big a loss.

      IMO, the report will not be driving prices in the after market. There will be a rapid spin cycle and bunch of head fake trading. The reality is that the company is still a developmental project, and the results of the moment are greeted more as an opportunity to spin and trade than as a progress report.

      The analyst estimates are wildly out-of-date, and have not been dropped as they should have been after the Q1 report. Many people take the analyst average as the benchmark of success or failure ... above is a success and below a failure. That would be incredibly short-sighted for actual investors to accept.

      The LOSS will be greater than the analyst number on the Yahoo site (out of date). Many (shorts and empty talking heads) will spin that as a negative. How informed the market is will matter.

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