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HollySys Automation Technologies, Ltd. Message Board

  • cummind2 cummind2 Sep 3, 2009 1:12 PM Flag

    ATTN: Florida/Nero

    Guys, I see you are a couple of APWR regulars. I am as well, though not that regular as it is a bit of a mess of a board.

    Anyway, to the point. I've been looking at HOLI this past while and am looking to buy but it seems to have decent support in the low 6's. What are your own thoughts on this as owners, what price targets have you set? If you are topping up, at what price would you buy more, that type of stuff. I almost pulled the trigger today at 6.05 but I have a sneaking suspicion we are going to get further down days this month given the way the market is reacting to news lately. Also today/tomorrow is quiet so I expect when business kicks off next week it should give us a good indication as to which way the market is going to go.

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    • Geeez, Florida, this POS is down 5.5%

      and U said it only went UP?????????



    • I meant to get back to this sooner, but some beautiful weather got in the way. I completely forgot about the one-time charges. You're correct, Florida, and I wouldn't want any lurkers to get the wrong impression.

      The one-time charges distort all the financials, and allow an unusually good buying opportunity while the true earning power of HOLI remains hidden from superficial examination.

    • welcome

      this is only my opinion -- and you obviously need to arrive at your own -- but I don't think there will be very many opportunities to buy sub-$6

      that's not to say there won't be a day or two when pps drops to maybe $5.50-$5.70, but any such drops are rapidly bought and you need to be quick on your trigger finger to exploit them

      I think you can't go bad buying at these levels, but I also agree that we will likely see a not insignificant market correction sometime this month or early next, so who knows?

      in terms of long-term targets, it is my intention to hold this stock for at least 10 years, and it should be anywhere from $30-$50 by then


      • 2 Replies to floridahockeyman
      • BTW that $30-$50 tgt was just a conservative guesstimate. this evening I put pencil to paper and projected out estimated annual earnings for the next 10 years. I started with Tobin's estimates for fiscal year 6/09-6/10 of $0.61 and fiscal year 6/10-6/11 of $0.77 (estimates available on Schwab).

        applying a 15x multiplier I come out with a target of $9.15 for next year; applying a 20x multiplier I come up with a target of $12.20.

        applying a 15x multiplier I come out with a target of $11.55 for year 2; and applying a 20x multiplier I come up with a target of $15.40.

        extrapolating a growth rate of 25% per year thereafter -- consistent with Tobin's 25% annual growth rate projection for the next 5 year timeframe -- I went on to calculate targets for years 3, 4, 5 and 10.

        I invite you to double-check my math, but here's what I came up with:

        3 yrs from now: $14.44 tgt at 15x; $19.25 at 20x

        4 yrs from now: $18.00 tgt at 15x; $24.00 at 20x

        5 yrs from now: $22.50 tgt at 15x; $30.00 at 20x


        10 yrs from now: $68.66 tgt at 15x; $91.60 at 20x

        so I expect a pps of $68.66-$91.60 in 10 years

        I was waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too conservative when I "spoke" off the cuff earlier today

      • Thanks guys,

        Thanks for the info. You share my thoughts Florida. I would be a long term holder like yourself as in until the next bull ends. I know it is a highly respected stock on Bill O'Neill's IBD, that said, I would like an entry point in the mid 5's. Its a the top of my watch list, fundamentals are good. I've performed the DD and its a good purchase but I'm one of these folk that dont like their holdings going negative so I may wait for the mid 5's. That said, it has held up tremendously well and tested the 6 support level multiple times recently.

        Anyway, I'll let you know how I get on. I've high hopes for this one.

    • Look at the 3m shares buy back program to end on march 31 2010. With such low volume, PPS should bump up once the program started.
      Question is, when is that program going to start?

      Check recent news for that anouncement.


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