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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Message Board

  • livermore1929 livermore1929 Jan 31, 2013 2:34 PM Flag

    I've been holding 5000 shares since 2000 at 8.25, buy, sell or hold?

    My brother in law bought it at 7.50, he is (or was) a chef and said it was moving well, I needed to get out of tech so this was part of the plan, most was put into P&G after the fall, SRCL and NKE, and UNH, do I wish that I shorted tech, of course, did I, no. I've trimmed losers in that time frame, sold and bought back UNH a few times. Missed the entires AAPL run, damn.

    Anyways, your thoughts? It is still a pretty small firm.

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    • sell

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • IMO you do not want any advice on what to do with your $8.25 shares. You just want all on this board to know what a genius you are. Nothing wrong with that. So why not just come out and state your position for all to congratulate you? False humility is more annoying than chest thumping bravado.

    • I would sell 20% of position but would have done it dec 31 to get l/t gain at 15%. Have feeling the tax code will change by end of yr with higher rates

    • I know what you DON'T do - ask for advise on a Yahoo board.

    • I am not so lucky, having bought my 1000 sahres at various prices starting in the 18s. Congratulations. I sold a few hundred shares last year around 80 for diversification, which was a disaster that I wish I could reverse. I plan to hold the remainder and not repeat my mistake. SAM can grow sales by 10x current levels, and they still will be a rounding error on BUD's annual report. Their sales will leverage into even larger increases in EPS, they still have no meaningful debt, and they buy back shares to meaningfully reduce share count. It will be interesting to see what happens when the report in a few weeks.
      Also, no sense forfeiting a huge chunk of a nice gain via punitive CG taxes.
      Short term, I thnk SAM is expensive, so I am currently short June 145 calls, and have an outstanding order to roll up/out to the June 150 calls for a small credit. I have collected about $6 per share in premium, so the risk-reward is OK for me. The stock is illiquid, and the options more so.
      I expect a pull back to a more reasonable PE sometime this year, but this may not take place as I believe that we are in a slow motion short squeeze. About 30% of float was short when the Dec 13th pop occurred, and all of these shorts are sitting on massive losses. The various short interest reports show a small amount of coving & reduction in short interest, but not a meaningful amount. The shorts must have much deeper pockets than I do, and a much higher pain theshold.
      I will hoist a SAM to honor your $650k financial victory tonight. Hang on and enjoy the ride.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • i think you are drunk

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