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ICON Public Limited Company Message Board

  • gstephen62 gstephen62 Dec 7, 2010 7:21 PM Flag

    40%+ in 6 Months

    This is a great company. Backlogs are the best ever and cover multiple years of revs. They have great assets (labs & beds for test subjects) all over the world and there is never a shortage of pharma research to be done. The Central Lab business is a drag at the moment but is ramping up to scale and will become profitable in mid to late 2011. Once this happens the stock will pop big. I can't see any reason this thing can't go 40%+ in 6 months.

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    • So how do you explain the current drop?--19.20 as I type now.

      • 1 Reply to ptgrd60160
      • Hi. ICLR had their investor day today and clearly the market is disappointed with the fact that mgmt didn't give formal guidance for 2011 (which will happen in late Feb on 4Q call). Mgmt did say though that it sees revenue growth of high single digit in 2011 (w/o new business wins) so I took this as a strong positive. Okay let's discuss what was negative: Just to recap, the underlying biz. has been strong all along but margins have dropped from 13.5% in 2009 to 12% in the most recent qtr due to growth investments in Asia and the Central Lab business both of which will ramp up to profitability in 2Q11 and beyond. What was a disappointment was that mgmt said margins would continue to be weak in the near term as this business ramps up. Basically, meaningful margin expansion is really being pushed out until 2012 versus prior hopes of gradual margin expansion throughout 2011. The stock reflects this and you need to understand that on any given day ICLR stock can rangebound and volatile. If it breaks $18 I'm going back to school. This is a solid, debtless company that has been beaten to death. It's a solid LT holding - just takes time - especially toward the end of the year when laggards get ignored for tax selling etc...

76.36-0.39(-0.51%)1:12 PMEDT