Any body know why the consensus EPS for next year was just lowered to -$0.74 from -$0.38? Was this Ardour Capital?
Has any one seen a report by Ardour Capital on MBLX? Any one call analyst at Ardour to ask why they lowered rating on MBLX?
I don't understand how this stock could be going down given the plant is just about to open, they have blue chip JV partner in ADM, anchor blue chip customer of Rubbermaid, and a product that is a "game changer" that has exponential potential.
I think this stock will double, if not triple, within next 12 months when Rubbermaid and others start advertising their "green" biodegradable products.
Also, I think the 2010 EPS numbers are well off. It appears MBLX intends to spend money on R&D next year.
It does not appear any of the other lines outside of Mirel are going to be commercialized in 2010 (I guess C4 chems has some chance but I have my doubts).
So with only Mirel, MBLX is looking at some royalty off of Mirel sales. If we put that royalty at 10% MBLX could make no more than $27.5M for the year at full 110M lbs per year sales of $2.50 a pound. Since 110M in year 1 is unlikely and I don't know if the royalty is that high...EPS seems poorly calculated.
But that doesn't bug me. If it is obvious C1 is a success and there is a path to C2 then few will fear MBLX being cash poor. If they have good things on the horizon and are part of a profitable JV then they are worth a lot more than the current multiple of cash.
They could be a tremendous bargain once the success of Clinton considerations are out of the debate. That won't happen until there is an obvious path to Clinton 2.
Remember, again and again we have been told that some of the costs for C2 have been accounted for in the design planning of C1. If C1 doesn't sell out in a reasonable time then all of this discussion regarding planning for expansion really translates into "in some ways C1 was built a lot more expensively that we needed to build it." I prefer to believe ADM and MBLX have reason to believe that expansion is likely.
It is also somewhat likely that Oil will continue to make the case for expanding capacity.
If you are a normal individual investor or any other kind of investor other than a QIB, which stands for Qualified Institutional Buyer, under SEC Regulation Number 144-A, you can not even talk to Ardour. That's right; they are prohibited from talking to you, a likely "naive investor". And they will not talk to you either. All companies and analysts and phone numbers are listed on Yahoo or AOL and other sites. I recently called every person listed as "analyst" for the five or six firms that call in and have special priveleges on the webcasts, or otherwise have information and/or "access" (however we might define that in the case of this oddly taciturn, tongue-less Metabolix management. "Rick Eno" has crossed the line into major sin of omission trying to deftly avoid a lesser sin of commission; cum'on give us the god___ information. You have it. You act on it). You, management, are awarding and are exercising stock option grants and "planned sales" based on what you are withholding in SEC filings and webcasts.)Look at the recent history of stock option grants and insider sales. Is Van Walsem or Sinskey short of cash for buying a new house in Boston? As I was saying, I called every analyst. Four responed. Pamela Bassett (Cantor Fitzgerald) was delightful and helpful; shexplained to me that she could not talk to me because I was an individual. I needed to be registered with my good friend Mary Shapiro, personal for the f---ing SEC, before she could talk to me. JinMing Liu at Ardour was a disaster; no, he could not legally talk to me about Metabolix; he would ask his boss if there were any exception, and he would call me back-- sure, and you couldn't even be sure if he was speaking Chinese or Korean. So, here we are, as we speak, in the news daily, arresting fund managers, analysts, "hedge fund" honchos,etc. for trading on "insider information". At the same time, information is going to the "analysts" and "firms" who cannot give it to us. They can only give it to QIB's, registered with the SEC and selected/functioning as "clients". The SEC is promoting, indeed, in my opinion, even requiring "insider trading". SIMPLE QUESTION: WHY CAN'T I GET THE SAME INFORMATION FROM ONE OF THESE FIRMS THAT A "QIB" GETS. Call up any of these firms and ask them to mail you a report, anything that they sent to their institutional QIB clients. The answer will be no. You cannot open an account with them. You cannot buy the report. Liu will have his manager call you back; I am still waiting; stupid me-- it has been 5 weeks. Well, more later. I believe that Metabolix failure to disclose information that they have is dangerous; a simple example: how much within a thousand basis points (i.e. 10%) will the "north of $300 million" cost of the Clinton 1 Plant be? That question was asked in the webcast last week, and "Rick" ducked it. Wait a minute, the plant is nearly complete; they know the cost within 10%. So what is the big deal? Does it have something to do with insider institutions and management stock options pricing and vesting? Something is wrong here and management owes us Joe-blow shareholders the information and "visibility" that they have the priveledge and SEC Rules to enjoy. I am thinking of hosting a non-insider shareholder meeting, I mean "tail-gate party", at the new plant in Clinton, Iowa in December. I want to invite "Rick" Eno to be guest speaker on a number of subjects, inc. his thinking about the exercise and sale of his stock options already granted and what we can look for in the future regarding new ones or "re-pricing " of the 60,000 or so existing ones that he has been given by us. Let me know if there is enough interest to "organize" something.
You are funny. I feel your frustration. The stock will eventually converge on its true value. That downgrade, and the drop from $12 to $10 will correct itself if the company has good potential. Let's just sit and see. For long time holder this drop is a buying opportunity. I loaded up at $10, and is way over weight on MBLX right now. Don't really know who is selling though.
P.S. In case you did not notice, I am fed up with this Pussy-footing management approach to disclosure. It seems that every other firm in the world in this "earnings season" is trying to give some useful guidance. Here we have a major event, etc., etc. and his management doesn't even want to say whether we are playing with 52 cards. There is a problem here. Imagine one year from now. How long can you beat around a bush (corn or switchgrass or your choice) before it dies?