There is a lot of wild speculation on the board right now about ADM & MBLX, profitability and sustainability.
The best question for Investment Relations right now is this:
1. "What do you see as the addressable market for your chemicals platform?" and 2. "You spoke about a scalable manufacturing process in regards to your chemicals platform, what is the type of infrastructure required to commercialize the C4 chemicals? Do you have a time and monetary estimate for the commercialization of the C4 program?"
If I were stuck long in MBLX, I would call IR with those questions. All that stuff about the profits of Mirel is silly at this point because we just found out the company will still be in development mode for the next year on the Mirel. The only catalyst saving you folks from a long slide down is the chemicals platform, and I think those two questions, if answered, will tell you whether to stick around and take some lumps or run for the hills and find a larger cap stock to run with.
I think with respect to the ADM/MBLX JV they are now in contractual no-man's land for revenue. I think the quarterly payments while the factory was being built no longer happen and royalties from sales will now only happen as sales are recognized.
My assumption is they will be forced to give guidance on Q4 here. Previously I believe they had made it pretty clear that they expected the plant to be in production by the end of the year. Regardless of the success they may announce in Oil seeds and scale plant for c3-c4-c5 chemicals, it should be demanded of them that they clarify what is going on in Clinton. I don't see analysts buying off on something like "we have escalated discussions on the expansion of the Clinton facility" (my made up quote) if MBLX cannot explain no Q3 revenue there.
On the other hand, if MBLX ignores Q3 and says "it is expected that the commercialization of Clinton will be complete in Q4 and we are giving guidance of Q4 sales above _______" then if there is good news in other areas the stock could have a great run coming up.
IMO the Clinton plant is so delayed that the difference between going into production in Q3 vs Q4 is irrelevant. However, this does not mean the short term impact on the stock isn't highly focused on the success or failure of the ADM/MBLX JV.