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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

  • petrp78 petrp78 Apr 8, 2011 3:31 PM Flag

    Rueters Article

    Read the Reuters article, you don't need a link. It's in the headline section of Yahoo Finance for MBLX.

    This article was very interesting.

    I thought that it provided no new information besides the fact that we discovered MBLX shut out an analyst on the conference call, and this particular analyst was a lead underwriter on the IPO. We have wondered for many years why the analysts were so stupid, well maybe we were victims of information control and censorship!!

    A little tid-bit from the article also stated that the plant is still not finished ... what? come again?

    Overall however, this article was clearly written from a negative perspective. I am a writer, and that article was drafted quickly with the intent to throw mud from a pissed analyst's perspective. Please make a note to read the part about the chemicals program. Immediately after than paragraph about selling chemicals at the same prices as oil competition, and waiting for a response, the writer mentions eyebrows being raised from the plant delays. The plant delay comment is about the Mirel Clinton plant, but the writer places the eyebrow comment right after the paragraph on the chemicals program.

    The stock is tanking 5+% today based on this article. Of course MBLX is speculative, we all knew this; but I don't think this article changed anything but the stock price. The recent price action broke a short term upward trend, and the next price level to watch is the 50 day moving average of $9.23.

    Bottom line: If the stock gets into the $8's again I think it is a screaming buy for a trade. OIL at $112 and MBLX is trading down. This negative article could be a gift for a trader.

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    • Clarification
      So I did some additional digging, and in spite of the 2011 copywrite the original NovaTech article ran on 03.25.2008. The 2011 copywrite belongs to a PDF version of that 2008 article. Mia Culpa.
      So, somewhat ironically, as useful as the Reuters article.
      Anyway I don't want to disrupt the main thread, but here's a link to an Oct 2010 article on the cogen plant that gives some info on alt fuel usage, and some pictures.

      www.powermag.com/issues/cover_stories/Top-Plant-ADM-Clinton-Cogeneration-Plant-Clinton-Iowa_3024_p3.html

      • 1 Reply to lntw0
      • I'm pretty certain there are still plans to use leftover corn biomass for some of the power (under 20%?). However, I don't think this is planned immediately. There was some brief discussion to this point on one of the more recent calls (possibly the analyst presentation). Will try to look it up later or address at shareholders' meeting.

    • FWIW- the piping issue raised may relate to the cogen plant at Clinton ADM. Here's the url to search (if it doesn't link). There's no specific date, but is copywrited 2011.
      mail.novatechweb.com/news_article.cfm?id=227&print

      • 1 Reply to lntw0
      • INTW0: Great find, here it is.

        New Boilers and Generators Provide Energy
        Independence and Reduce Environmental Impact
        The ADM Clinton CoGen project had a successful startup of both boilers, and integration of the generator set is slated to be completed in
        the near future.
        When all is operational, the CoGen facility will produce 180MW of electricity off of 3.6 million pounds per hour of steam. This will allow the
        ADM Clinton PHA facility to be independent of the electrical grid and drastically reduce its emissions. The three Faber boilers will provide
        all the steam required for the Clinton corn and PHA plant processes. Excess steam will power two GE steam turbines dynamically
        balanced to neither waste energy nor overproduce power.
        The boilers will use a combination of natural gas and coal (from a 60,000-ton storage dome) treated with ammonia and lime injections to
        reduce NOX and SO2 emissions, respectively.
        The project, headed up by NovaTech Sr. Applications Engineer Kevin Morris, uses a complete array of NovaTech products and services.
        The boiler is controlled with a D/3® PCM and 8000 Series I/O, while an Orion Automation Platform and the Distributed Discrete I/O
        (DDIO) automate the generation substation. NovaTech also provided applications engineering and systems design services to the project.
        NovaTech CEO Volker Oakey notes, “This project is a prime illustration of the synergies inherent in our combined process and utility core
        competencies. Process facilities looking to increase their energy efficiency and independence can count on NovaTech to provide the best
        tools and people to achieve their goals.”

    • Grasping. Hmm… To me, grasping is Zune, Bing, Loman-esque desperation… (the Zune was liked, but not well liked), a middle aged former hottie clinging to the muddy slope of decline (shall we say Ballmer-esque?).

      Does MBLX need to make sales? Not if they’ve planted a money tree. But the headline “Novel Manufacturing Company Must Make Sales to Prove Viability” doesn’t really stand out. Might as well write: “Company Must Make Money”. Yeah.

      The piping thing was vague, and Christ’s sake, there’s probably miles of piping – unless the author can be specific, for all we know MBLX could be installing low-flow toilets.
      The analyst dust up is concerning. Sure he’s pushy, but if that is a management response it doesn’t sit well with me. His points about the Chinese plant are interesting, and could have been easily handled during the call on a number of levels. I guffawed out loud when he tried to suggest that this plant could be a direct MBLX competitor. At this point in time the market is vast, so no real zero-sum possibilities for years. Moreover, is their cost structure and efficiency such that they’ll start exporting at prices lower than MBLX before tapping the Chinese market? If so I haven’t read anything about that level of efficient production.

      • 1 Reply to lntw0
      • One thing I do know for a fact is that ADM CLINTON is buying corn (and has been for a year)in a very competive market place. To me this means they are making plastic and preparing to ship large quantities in the near future.
        You do not buy $7 corn if you do not have a need for it.

        THis article certainly pointed out all the negatives but they did forget to mention that MBLX has annouced customers and this means there will be revenues generated sooner rather then later.

        One last thing if MBLX is going to be priced competitivly with oil @ $30 then the profit marging should be improving.

    • Article was clearly written to hurt the stock and benefit the short sellers. As you said, there was nothing news worthy in this article.

      Author of article is doing a favor for someone he knows, and it likely made a short seller a lot of money today. Should be illegal, but it happens all the time.

 
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