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ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. Message Board

  • TZBORAY TZBORAY Oct 14, 2009 2:53 PM Flag

    Price Predictions for Tomorrow?

    Based on today's price action, I think we see lower pps tomorrow. What do you guys think? GLTA

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    • I also believe the small raise last month was simply done to give them a bit of breathing room. The ZIO-201 mid-stage and/or ZIO-101 ASCO results should be enough to get folks talking to them.

      A deal would also likely result in coverage pickup(s) which could create real interest here.

      Still a small float and very small market cap for a co with 2 mid stage and one pre-clin programs.

      I think over the next few weeks all of the PIPE selling will be exhausted. Then we could move higher.

      Bought a few more on the Fri. AM dip.

      MarkAk- 80.4%

    • You might want to check their guidance regarding cash burn. Ziop is fairly efficient and if I remember right, that $4.5M was supposed to be enough to fund operations until mid-2010. That means the extra $5M could get them into 2011. Of course it's much more complex than that - if they are starting new trials and moving their other drugs forward it will cost much much more.

      I guess the point is that they can coast along at current burn rates for a long time if they have to. That will give them time to negotiate a partnership, which should bring in more cash and allow them to start aggressively moving forward.

    • Yeah I really wish there were options available here, but there is hardly any volume on stock itself, so it's no woner that there are no options. To be honest I am not concerned about a partnership, I don't see that in the cards, all I see is that these folks need money not only for Phase III here, but also if they wanna do anything with their other pipeline drugs. Their last 10Q basically spelled out that they were broke and could not advance the other drugs without more funding. Of course they did raise that $5M, but I am not sure how much has been spent since they said they had $4.5M at the end of last quarter. Either way these guys need money somehow, and with the advance in the stock price here, it would make sense to hit the market with a secondary, just like almost every other company in this situation does. I am actually surprised that it hasn't already happened here....just a matter of time I think. Anyway I have not pulled the trigger here at all, but I will be watching. I am not sure if I want to get involved in another stock with such little following or not. For the most part I am a covered call writer, so I have a bunch of funding that will be freed up as of Monday, and I will considre this again at that time. I may just stick with the long side on DNDN instead. I am just looking to dip my feet in the shorting water, and I thought this might be a good opportunity to try that with. Just a short term thing on the anticipation of a secondary being necessary and imminent here. I have no negative opinions of this company or their drug pipeline, just looking to capitalize on the general trends of how these types of companies tend to trade after these types of events. I am starting a fairly detailed database so in time I will have a much better idea of the tendencies. Obviously each case is unique, but it seems to me that there are some fairly clear and regular patterns with these small cap biotechs.

    • Who knows. The important thing is that we may finally get some MF interest. Hopefully a firm or two will initiate coverage with a positive bias.

      My gut says the good mid-term data increases the chances that they ink a deal over the next few months. I guess we will see the full set in Nov.

    • Keep in mind that there are 5.6 million shares or so from the PIPE of a few weeks ago that are deep in the money. While I'd guess that a majority of those are long term holders, and 1/2 of those are warrants, a million or two are probably being flipped out of as we speak. I'd bet on short term pressure and then a good rally over the next few weeks/months as liquidity is being picked up by real players who were waiting for the data.

      • 1 Reply to agevgnol
      • That private placement was only half the figure you I assume you are including the warrants as well, but those are exercisable for 5 years, so it is impossible to say, as far as I know, but not likely that it is those shares hitting the market. I also would like to know if there is any regulation on those kinds of private placements as far as when the shares/warrants are available to sell, like if there is any kind of holding time requirement at all or not???

    • I'd guess a small pop and pullback.

    • The end-of-day rally looked like day traders covering short positions. Just my opinion, and I think we'll see about a 10% sell-off over the next couple days, before resuming upward. Good luck.

    • Looks like some buying goign into the close but tomorrow may be a down day. Unfortunately.

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