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ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. Message Board

  • capt_rj_kirk capt_rj_kirk Apr 6, 2011 12:14 PM Flag

    BIG volume move to new 52-wk high. 3xs normal volume

    This is a big volume move to new highs - which I love.

    775,000 shares so far today - less than 3 hours into this sesion is three times the norm.

    We are already WAY over the average daily volume of:

    526,975 last 5 day avg daily volume
    477,151 last 20 day avg daily volume
    515,963 last month avg daily volume

    We are on pace for 1.7 million volume today which is over three times the norm.

    I love breakouts to new 52-wk highs with huge volume. GREAT CONFIRMATION the big boys are buying.

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    • I'm not saying you are wrong, Capt_rj_kir... but I am talking about the heavy buying action over the last couple of hours specifically. (You sometimes let your enthusiastic fandom for the doings of Roland J. Kirk get the better of you.)

      It seems consistent to me with a smaller institutional buyer taking a position of a couple of million dollars, plus volume boosted by day traders getting in ahead of the big buyer and then releasing as the stock moves up.

      That is why the action now slowed and the volume for the last half hour has only been 1/3 or 1/4 of each of the other 1/2 hours today. The price has slipped as short term traders cover their positions to lock in profits.

      The bigger institutional buyers like Fidelity can't be quite so nimble and clearly they often build their positions by buying into secondary offerings where they know exactly what price they are gettings in at.

      At least that is how I see it today, though I welcome any opinions from those more savvy than me.

      Obviously I hope that some of the funds from the CLDA closing will find there way into ZIOP, but that hasn't happened yet. (I still have some CLDA shares myself with a basis of $14.98 and am waiting for that payoff.)

    • OK, so where do we top out today?

      I looked at the chart this a.m. and although I am no expert on technical charts, the daily chart did look a bit cup-and=handleish, though I would like to have seen the handle go a bit lower.

      Anyway, I quickly doubled my ZIOP holding (average basis $5.89) at $6.38 just in case it lifted off, and so far it has done just that.

      Do we crest today and fall back to the mid $6.30s, or is this going to be a three-day ride to the moon as the me-too crowd (sorry, that should be momentum investors) jump aboard the ZIOP starship headed into the clear blue resistance free sky?

      Most likely we are looking at one institutional buyer accumulating, and when they have filled their position, then we see some profit taking some slippage of the stock price until it consolidates again.

      Anyway, to summarize: UP GOOD, DOWN BAD, and let's see if we can finish the day on a high and gap forward tomorrow. (I think not, but you can always hope.)

      • 2 Replies to gere33982
      • This is more than one institutional buyer imo. For weeks I have been telling anyone who would listen since 5.70 that MANY - institutional and retail holders will add ZIOP into and after the CLDA close.

        They WILL follow kirk who has doubled their money 2 or 3 times. Fidelity will, other institutions will and MANY large retail investors will - I know many retail investors who will buy over a million shares total - them alone - once deal closes next week.

        Remember that this is not a norm deal where retail and institutional investors sell in mass on deal announcement and the arbs come in a wait for the last 5%. Many are holding to get the CVR that could some day be worth $6 So many will get the $30 a share cash next week.

        Some with buying power - as I predicted - have started buying pre-deal. Others will post deal.

        Sure it may pull back from 6.50 - but it wont pullback for long - once the CLDA deal closes there will be demand.

        And dont forget the big short position. They are all underwater now and sweating.

        Next move higher the short squeeze comes imo

      • In the marrow of my bones I think we'll see 20.00 in 2 years. The last article in Forbes tells how exuberant RJ is and he is putting his money where his mouth is.

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