BTTB- It is funny how this whole thing hinges on a legacy small molecule program. If they miss on data, I suspect Kirk takes the whole company out and recaptures his oncology rights. If they hit data benchmarks, I think Pali is sold withing 60 days with a huge back-end(you are likely correct re: CVR?) predicated on milestones being met in SCLC.
I believe the (much higher than expected) selling price of Pali will surprise most. The drug has a very long residual patent life. Also, folks are focused on smallish STS market. Longer term, Pali could become an across the board replacement for IFOS. It is in a sense the same drug (active metabolite)minus the AEs.
I also have a sneaking suspicion the Breast trial combining old tech(Pali) with new(synthetics) may surprise to the upside. Company is very close to MSK/Norton( He has been on their payroll for a long time as a consultant).
My bull bet is 7 on data, 10-12 on partnering and add 5 bucks or so based on synthetic progress by this time next year.
Bear bet is we go sub $2 on bad data but the stock gets taken out by Kirk at $5 or so.