Many years ago (30-40) I learned two areas of the economy were very good indicators of the economy-bed sales and dental work sales. We just got a warning today from SCSS, with the stock down 15%, that 1st Q sales will not meet expectations. Using the "ringing bell" analogy, this an excellent warning shot that the economy is turning lower. Chances are, sales and earnings estimates for the S&P 500 will follow.
It seems that the market 'wants' to get to Dow 15,000, or at least traders have their eyes on that pyschological milestone. I will go to 80% cash when/if it touches that mark. Commander I have made some dough recently buying UGAZ at $18 and selling it north of $23. I just sold my position this AM but I really have no sense of what's next for the NG price with the cold season ending. Do you?
Commandor - What if the final bull market that you are looking for later this year is already upon us and the correction never materializes? Is there a point to which your narrative changes and you are forced to buy in much higher than you would have liked?
Here is what I think is going on. The "market" is anticipating the ECB will have to ease, because of all the poor data coming out of Europe. There was some more out of German today with very weak industrial orders for January-within the Euro-zone, orders down 4%. So, the market is buying in anticipation. My view has been that poor economic data out of Europe will will cause stocks/commodities and the Euro to fall first-sensing that earnings will not meet expectations. Then, after 1-3 months of "pain" the ECB would reluctantly have to activate QE for countries that were getting further into trouble without requiring them to engage in further austerity reforms.
Despite rising stock prices, I still have that view-only adding to NG positions, which has started to move in the last couple days. As an indicator that the ECB will move within days is gold. Gold is still only about $20 higher than its recent low. So, without gold moving up, then I continue to sit on alot of cash until it gives me the upward signal that I am looking for. Or if it moves below $1525, that would be the downward signal that ECB easing is months away-therefore a stock/commodity/Euro sell off is coming.