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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • chairman_westgate chairman_westgate Apr 11, 2012 11:46 AM Flag

    They missed EPS 2 of the past 4 qtrs, and given a pass.


    I dunno what that means for the future.

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    • Not all EPS misses are equal. If CMG fell short of earnings because revenues/sales faltered, that would be very bearish sign that the growth story may be coming to an end.

      However, as far as I can tell, that is not the case with CMG. SSS are growing, and price increases have been met with little resistance. The company has a great amount of control on the revenue side. CMG's problem has been the rising cost of food inputs which is reducing their margin. Most of their inputs are commodities, and their prices fluctuate. Food is expensive now, but you can't bank on high food prices as being a permanent hit on earnings. In fact, if quantitative easing is indeed ending as the Fed alluded to, you may see food/oil prices begin to drop. Does the economy have the strength to stand on its own without QE? That's another question.

      Side question - What are people's thoughts about whether CMG can pass on another price increase? Here in Atlanta, a chicken or vegetarian burrito goes for 6.25. Using McDonalds as a benchmark, a chicken sandwich extra value meal goes for 6.19. A 6.25 burrito with a glass of water seems like a much better deal to me than the extra value meal. I could see another price increase in the near future. Thoughts?

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