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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • n59218 n59218 May 31, 2012 9:28 PM Flag

    Float Transferred to Dumb Hands Calculation

    As per one "Float Transferred to Dumb Hands Calculation" Theory:

    Past 88 sessions * (avg. vol. 0.6M/session) * 0.50 Noise-reduction-multiplier
    = 26.4M shares have already been transferred by now into the dumb-hands.

    Total float = approx. 31.8M.
    Hence, only 5-10 sessions left at most, before a serious move down to
    -34% retracement starts. Knowing this, if volume increases, it could be
    sooner. (Or if one of the Whales/MFMs breaks the Secret-Circle first,
    for one of the variety of reasons).

    The real-smart MFMs made their moola here with a move from a base of $50
    in Feb 2009 to $400 recently. Now, the folks getting in after curve-downdraft
    of March-21st, are essentially classified in the "weak-dumb hands" category.
    The expected Fibonacci Retracement will flush them out rather easily.
    An emergence of a Tail-Risk type event will immediately force the exit of
    the Taleb's Barbell strategy adherents and even convert some of them
    into new shorts here, who will enjoy the immediate and rapid slide down.
    (after most of the hard-work has already been done for them by their forefathers,
    who sacrificed themselves to build the smooth interstate-highway for almost
    two-years for the CMG to slide-down on to now :-)). UUP having broken out now,
    such a possibility is a highly likely outcome here.

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    • 5.3K block on sell at 398.10 on L2 ... heavy dumps ahead! The mo-mo is over!

    • Thanks for all the recos. These calculations have never failed on me. The first cover tgt for long termers is 271 and next is 191... anything higher than that, and one is simply leaving the money on the table, even after being right modelling! There is not a single reason to buy this right now and perhaps more than two dozen to sell, IMHO.

      • 1 Reply to n59218
      • Sticking with my steps going down ... 271 first step down, next 191, ... next... next ... YE-Tax-Loss-Selling -- Corn/Inputs Hyper-Inflation .. and you see a reasonable PE of 15 and pps in double-digits! It has now metamorphed itself into a "value" category stock, and the PE would reflect as such. Value managers don't pay a 57 multiple for a burito stock, without any intellectual-moat of the semi/tech/software-cloud/bio-informatics type companies!

    • Cramer has done a masterful job of pulling in the weak and the dumb with all his "health" and "lines out the door" poop.

    • CMG Selling off as expected. Goog is going down too. MSFT down afterhours.

      • 1 Reply to n59218
      • Co-relation haunts again: CMG and MSFT -- down same day big time after Oct 18th, 2012! Spooky action! This slide in CMG may not stop until 250 first, this time around. Many traders are extremely superstitious too. Now, some are saying- the man chopping off his two arms in the HD store today, is an extremely bad-omen for that HD stock too... it marks the top in HD pps and its all downhill from 72 to 50 there next. Time will tell.

    • Misplaced belief in a barbell / bimodal strategy is what will eventually get the Johnny come lately longs crushed here (and the Bubble bondholders too). Soon enough, what you see in Europe will be coming to a city, state and (likely last) country near you.

      If this squeezes tomorrow, I'm going to double up COB. I don't care if this isn't the exact top, nor do I care that it could in theory take longer to breakdown. People have no friggen understanding of how hard this and every other restaurant stock will get hammered as we look just like Europe by 2013.

      Good luck longs. You might have another 6 months before this gets cut by a third, but I doubt it. By EOY 2013, this will be sub 200... Trade away!

    • Finally, as expected, DE arrived on the scene! Check out CRM ... expected to dive similarly soon.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell



      Top Institutional Holders
      Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
      Capital World Investors 3,128,182 9.87 1,307,580,076 Mar 31, 2012
      PRICE (T.ROWE) ASSOCIATES INC 2,981,371 9.40 1,246,213,078 Mar 31, 2012
      VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE) 1,735,499 5.47 725,438,582 Mar 31, 2012
      JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC 1,593,814 5.03 666,214,252 Mar 31, 2012
      STATE STREET CORPORATION 1,154,407 3.64 482,542,126 Mar 31, 2012
      Ameriprise Financial, Inc. 850,518 2.68 355,516,524 Mar 31, 2012
      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 833,954 2.63 348,592,772 Mar 31, 2012
      JANUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 633,650 2.00 264,865,700 Mar 31, 2012
      FMR LLC 3,911,609 12.34 1,635,052,562 Mar 31, 2012
      RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES, LLC 631,800 1.99 264,092,400 Mar 31, 2012

    • The calculations accurately predicetd this swoon. Now, JWN and ADBE are setup this way, to fall off the cliff next. GOOG slide down will continue for some time.

    • CMG selling off as expected! For the long-minded ones here, better is to go long BBY, NOK etc. at this juncture.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Writing was on the wall!
      This looks like- will be sold heavily now!
      Then in Nov/Dec, the tax-loss selling may take it down to
      double-digit levels!

418.95-0.93(-0.22%)Sep 27 4:03 PMEDT