Things That Will Go Against CMG In The Coming Days
1) difficult to expand menu offering due to streamline operation
2) shophouse is a flop according to reviews from yelp
3) food inflation will either cause them to raise price or cut portion, both lead to reduced traffic
4) Competition is becoming fierce
5) very inconsistent service (from my own experience and reviews from yelp)
Overall, I think CMG is going to experience some rough time.
15% revenue growth deserves a 15 FPE at best, higher than that is a far stretch. Considering the coming vibrant inflation once the economy shows sign of coming back, I wouldn't rule out that at some point, Chipotle's margin will get squeezed significantly. Long term I'm bullish on the company, but short term the valuation is too high. $150 is about right, under $100 will be a good deal.
I tried to eat CMG everyday lately, here are some observations:
1) service is inconsistent as always; different people give out different qantities of food, pretty annoying
2) food quality is inconsistent; there are too many discretionary parts in the cooking procedure, hard to maintain standards
3) once you eat a couple of times, you begin to get tired of the stuff especially if one day you get something not well cooked
Overall, I think it is difficult for CMG to maintain its food quality and service standard, therefore, at some point, it has the potential to fall out of favor rather quickly.
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For CMG shorts, they say it is best to cover and relax. Don't get squeezed
6) The sustainability of their sustainable ingredients are very much in doubt when more and more restaurants are open. And naturally raised animals need more food to fee them, when inflation is up, that will have a much bigger impact on their meat price, which will lead to bigger problem than other chains.