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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • davidbbuckelew Jul 8, 2009 7:24 AM Flag

    okay - the news is out. now what?

    it's too early to tell with the pre-market. however, the ask is currently over 3.00.

    will we see a big sell off in early hours if we get a nice run in the pre? this is, after all, only phase 2 with a mid 2010 date for the final data. or, will the promise of navy funding and flu vaccine keep the price moving forward.

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    • Just about all of the small-cap platform biotechs I follow are getting hit today (SGMO, MITI, and VICL). Also, many other small cap biotechs are getting punished (ALTH). With the AMGN news and the general market sell-off, we might be seeing a rotation within biotech away from risk, i.e. favoring large cap biotechs over small caps. Who knows.

    • davidbbuckelew Jul 8, 2009 12:14 PM Flag

      i agree... but, we should not see a sell off like this on positive news. news is all a bio/pharma has until it has a product and that is what drives the pps (to a point).

      i expected to see a close at or very near 3 dollars today. not a day long sell off.

    • Step back....look at the series of PR's released since February, including today's conference.

      There's no "silver bullet" or a single vaccine that will turn Vical profitable over night. Yes, it will take years, not months for a CMV vaccine to be "market ready."

      This is all about VALIDATION of safety and efficacy in humans for Naked DNA for tough medical challenges.

      This will help Vical find a partner to fund Phase 3 and ensure NO DELAY in getting FDA approval of the study design.

      Vical has very low debt for a biotech platform company. The sequence here:

      > Continued progress, validation of "the platfrom" in multiple, diverse applications (flu, cancer, CMV-transplants, PAD, malaria, HIV)
      > Continued visibility, efficacy, safety of Vaxfectin
      > Continued revenue stream from milestones, clinical trial efforts (H1N1 for example)
      > Continued positive results on key trials
      > New partnership (vs further dilution) to fund CMV Phase III, similar to AnGes deal on PAD.
      > On time completion of A7 Phase III enrollment with interim Phase III results one year from now.

      We can/should see a 4-6X lift in shareprice if all this continues on track.

      H1N1 is the wild card in the short term. At a minimum, it's raising Vical's profile as ready for prime time....which can help them finally reach the tipping point where the stock price moves above $5-6 into respectable territory.

      good luck

    • They better have more detail in the confernece call, but it is not usual for companies not to release data in the early PR. In fact, most of the biotech companies I've ever followed always release the data (good or bad). I just have a sneaking suspcion that the results are so so at best.

    • davidbbuckelew Jul 8, 2009 9:19 AM Flag

      they only release the summery. the full news comes during conf. this am.

    • davidbbuckelew Jul 8, 2009 8:55 AM Flag

      i am really wondering if the big boys are gaming the average joe? they buy in when something is gonna happen and sell off for a small profit (which keeps their books looking better then taking loses).

      it sucks, an average joe can't make any money. mm's and other big boys will not let you make money.

    • It might go up but at the end it will go down.

    • Where do you see that the ask over 3? I use market watch for my pre market data quotes but I see this sitting at 2.75. Thanks in advance!

2.86-0.05(-1.72%)Oct 24 3:56 PMEDT