Do any of you see it?
We had a small run up, then a drop, then another run up. We had calls and puts. We had bets and gambles and speculation all over the place. Never mind the pumpers and bashers. Expected this.
VJ said "We will get you excited".
Then we had results. Trial failed. Price dropped about two points. Even though I believed we had a winner, I expected that kind of loss on failure.
Next, we had a CC, in which VJ spoke about the pipeline, and the future, and A-7 being shelved.
This was followed by a 30M share day. Over half the outstanding shares.
And the lawyers didn't hesitate to jump right in.
Now, we have 15K shares bid and ask, with 4M+ shares traded the last two days.
I was long, and haven't realized any losses yet. I accept my decisions as my own. But I do have some questions. Why wasn't the safety profile addressed in the CC? Why couldn't this be marketed against chemo if the results are the same, without the AE's? Who was buying at 3+ pps? And why? Not the 100 share trades, but the big blocks. Why did five directors buy in May, at market price? Why did one of those directors exercise 12.5K shares a week or so before the buys? Why did VJ get a stock gift on 8-5-13? Why wasn't the event rate disclosed? Or any of the numbers? Let the data speak for itself. Why hasn't the data been released?
I know VJ said that the data would be released in a publication at some point. Why not say "We are analyzing the data, and will publicize it on date "x-y-z"?
What is wrong with this picture? What am I missing? I try to learn something everyday, yet this one escapes me.
"We will excite you"... how? Something is amiss.
Some very good replies.
I agree that they just rolled over and quit. Very much like Ed said, someone told them to quit and keep quiet.
I'm not trying to start a conspiracy theory here. No point in that. But someone did say that they thought the trial was a success, and was being covered up.
This seems to be the most likely scenario in my mind... The data was fair to good, with fair being equivalent to chemo, just without the nasty side effects. Somebody wants the drug for development, and ultimately sales. This potential partner told VJ to close the study, and can the project completely, so that they can come in and either buy the company out cheap or do a hostile takeover at a much lower cost.
Given the way the CC went, and the length's that VJ went to avoid answering questions about A-7, plus the fact that no data was released, leads me to believe that this may have been orchestrated.
If you listen to the CC on 8-1-13, someone asked a question and VJ stammered. He didn't hesitate, stutter, he stammered. I have listened to the CC's for over 3 years, and have heard him caught off guard, but never like that.
And again, why no numbers? Why? I understand not stating the target event was "x" and we achieved "y", but where are the other numbers? P-value? Percent responders? Percent non-responders? MOS in chemo arm, vs treatment arm? Where are the numbers?
I am neither a doctor nor a scientist, nor am I an idiot.
However, I am angry! Not that my investment lost money. I am angry because we were not given the facts as to why this trial failed. Where are the facts? Where are the numbers?
Where is the data? The REAL data. Not the bs statement "Allovectin failed on both the primary and secondary endpoints".
Something is seriously not right. I don't believe in lawsuits, but Vical needs to provide some real, pertinent data, or VJ needs to go immediately.
Yeah, I don't think anything is being covered up. VJ said it was no better than Chemo. I think VJ was, well, I'm not sure. But after 20 years of chasing this thing down to have it do nothing. Well, i wonder if he's going to resign very soon. Especially after all he said to shareholders and the public, and I bet his own employees. Vical isn't a large company so I'm sure he knows all the workers there.
The drug is garbage. Especially since there are recent approvals for melanoma and more coming.
No one wants A-7 unless it can clean toilets. And even that would require some sort of a trial. And you have a long wait for any trial done with a Japanese company. The current P3 trial started a year late. Collatagene is 7 years late. .A-7 was the last of the "3 shots on goal" as VJ called them many years ago. The Tamaris trail (shot 1) also missed the net big time. Collatagene (shot 2) owned by Anges ,may be waiting for a partnership from another galaxy to begin. This may shorten the waiting time for the trial's start. Ladies and Gentleman the suckers have left the building.
Perhaps the data that we seek will still be released before the end of the month as that is what was said at the CC a couple of weeks ago. He originally had said that it would be released by then, he even implied that it would be the end of August, so maybe they just glanced over at the results and realized that both endpoints failed so rather than having investors wait in anticipation for the numbers they decided to end the "will it work or not" debate hence the reason for the haste CC on Monday, but they're still collecting the data to finalize the numbers and will deliver them before the end of the month as originally promised. That's how I interpreted this whole scenario, so if there is still no top line data released by the end of the month then I too will join the conspiracy theorists and say something just doesn't add up.
Puzzle this. How do you declare a candidate drug program dead within hours after results disclosure of a 7 year trial. In all those years there was no empirical data indicating effectiveness? Clearly the drug had efficacy in line with much more toxic treatments. Is that not sufficient to warrant continuation or at least investigate enhanced efficacy with other regimens. They just rolled over, not even a peep of defense of a drug which they hung their hats on. VJ must go immediately. Either there was nothing ever there of substance or there is vast levels of incompetence.
Something is wrong. The length of trial, previous data, positive comments from Vical, and termination without explanation. It smells crooked. Almost like they were told to quit and keep quiet.
The actual paraphrased quote when he was asked how much data VICL will make public before the end of August was "If top line data is good we will show you enough to get you excited, and the rest of the data we will publish through the proper channels such as a medical journal". People on this board are just taking the "we will get you excited" way out of context. Perhaps it's to make them feel better about their investment choice - now they can say that they were duped by Vijay because he promised data that would get us excited and now he didn't deliver on that excitement so it must be a case of fraud since he used the exact words of "we will get you excited". Good Lord am I the only sane person left on this message board? Allovectin failed - many cancer trials fail, as sad as it is for patients who were praying for it to work, it's a part of life. That being said from an investor point of view I think VICL did the right thing in shelving Allovectin and moving the rest of the pipeline to the centre of attention. After averaging down my average price is now 1.80 and I'm not worried one bit that I'll lose my investment because this stock is still worth well over current price regardless if someone comes in a tries to buy us out, or whether VICL simply goes back to the plate and swings for the fences again.
I was above that quantity. I sold and moved on. At least a high interest dividend will pay 20% while you wait. That's a for sure ramp over being stuck in the dole drums with VICAL for ever and ever and...
ballman, you have brought up many interesting points worth considering. To add to your list of multiple buying and option exercising by insiders, there is this person, James Singer, who bought 11 millions shares in 2012 until early this year WITHOUT selling a single share! This picture is worth pondering really. You really get me thinking now. Thank you for that.
I agree with you ballman. The happenings prior to this don't jive with a failed study. I haven't sold yet but thinking about when to exit. I wouldn't mind hanging onto it for a year but want to get out quick if this company is going to dissolve. I'd like to hear more from Vical to be honest.
Hopefully they get through this Herpes trial quick.
I wonder if allovectin works in a subgroup of patients. Studies often have subanalysis. Why can the drug before fully analyzing the data???
Here is the evidence that Vical CEO committed fraud, hid it from the BOD, and greatly hurt me and other investors.
1) CEO Refused to state the target # of deaths.
2) The 2 year delay from reaching the predicted mid 2011 target date for locking the data base, is not explained by simply saying the study failed. The only logical explanation from studying the survival curve of the phase 2, which had a patient population that was 4 years younger and less sick . ( stage 4= 63% in phase 3, versus 47% in phase 2) , is that CEO continued to move the goal posts, which is of target number of deaths required to lock the database.
3) CEO refused to release the actual results. He is hiding the facts. He says the results will be published, which is a lie. Small companies do not publish failed studies. The first phase failed phase 3 was never published.
4) The Vical contact person on the study for a number of years was Dmitri D Kharkevitch, the FDA study info should still be available on their website, in the "changes" area.
There were no updates to Allovectin-7 study on the FDA site from July 2011 until Jan. 2013. WHY? I do not know exactly when Kharkevitch left Vical, but I believe it was in late 2011, or early 2012. Why would he leave if this study was going to be hugely successful? He smelled the fraud, and left.
5) Why did CFO abruptly resign in March 2013?
6) The primary endpoint was Durable Response Rate(DRR). The data from this endpoint was available in February 2012. CEO said that FDA allowed this database to be locked separate from the Overall survival database. Amgen T-Vec study announced the DRR results, even though they still have not reached the target # of deaths to lock their OS database.
Kenny, you are a fraud... A shameless pathetic f'king loser with no moral. You seriously suck at investment. I've been laughing at your sorry aarss since your Kodak days and you still manage to embarrass yourself and the Luskin family with your horrendous failures and child like rants.
As usual, have a f'king nice day Loser Kenny.
7) An Amgen employee said that even Amgen greatly prolonged a study, so they could greatly delay announcing disappointing results. A large company like Amgen may be able to hide this fraud, but not so at a small company, such as Vical.
8) CEO deliberately misled investors by stating on a few occasions, that Vical had insight into the study, because they were shipping the Allovectin-7. Stated that some patients were on Allovectin-7 for the full 2 years of maximum treatment. Implied that he had inside info about the success of the study.
9) If you spend the time to look at the attached Phase 2 survival chart on page 8, you can see that based upon the 11 month and 18 month assumptions, the phase 3 should have reached 250 to 270 patient deaths in mid 2011. Since the study was randomized 2 to 1, a longer median OS of the 1/3 control arm, only extends the study duration by one third.
10) In other words, IF the control arm lived 18.8 months, instead of 11 months, the duration of the study would be extended by less than 8 months from mid 2011.
11) Press release on August 12 says that A-7 failed the primary endpoint, which was Durable response rate(DRR). Melanoma patients treated with chemo have never produced a DRR greater than single digits. Since the phase 3 patients were announced by Vical to be 4 years older, and sicker (63% stage 4 vs 47% in phase 2), it is highly unlikely that they lived substantially longer ALL the meta data indicates, and from what was seen in the phase 2 patients that only received a few shots of A-7= 12 months.
First. The 1.62. This upsets me more than the 1.4 I'm down in VICl at this point. For the 15th time. If I sell stock at 1.64 at noon, then my trader sells more at 1.60 . I have hime close out my trade by 4. If he's busy. (my traders are) he may not "book" ..."print' the trade until 4:30. Thats when all of you see a "afterhours trade" NO. its a print from earlier in the day. Anyone on this board who doesn't understand that should not be in this name.
"feels" wrong. Down 2$ in a few hours after the "excited" quote feels like a Mob Hit. Something bad happend. Correct.
Was VO long and Short.? Was Singer.? Did VJ know. ?NO insiders Sells.
VJ will BE FIRED or Resign. No Question. I say Resign. I hope and Pray Sherwin Takes the Helm. Meron Morrow.FINE. Double blind says VJ may have an OUT.OK. Still has to go.Stock up 60c. That second.
Nice trade SHORTS. I hope there wasn't a leek. I'd like to see some people get help with Cancer. Everyone knows my story. Patients need a break. No one likes Cheerleading for Failure. Seems odd
Something needs to happen ASAP. Have good Pipeline. Now we need New Managment.
The BAD news is OUT. Here come the Class Action suits. Big deal. VJ wont be around. Stocks overdone and oversold and undervalued.
VO. you sleep good?