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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

  • johnlobur johnlobur Mar 1, 2012 4:07 PM Flag

    Strong finish

    See y'all in the low-mid 15's tomorrow. Low 16's on Mon.

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    • Guess I will get my chance tomorrow to buy more at 13.90 onepoint ... wonder if it will hold the magic 14 by the end of the day after an early morning shakeout ...

      Turtle -

    • Since my new Rocnation Black aviators just came in the mail I will have to hold on to my stock for now even if it dips below 14 - I will just buy more if it does...

      Turtle -

    • Here's my TA:

      If managment stays super focused on the brand they will be able to grow earnings pretty rapidly for a number of years (let's say 15 to 25% growth for 5 years) despite competition from cheap knock-offs and copycats then PPR or VF will want to own it. If all goes as planned the owners will make 20 to 30% a year on their investment from here.

      Folks with no brand experience will refute this thesis because they believe that an efficient market won't allow skull to make such wide margins on its wares. The same person that would say this is probably wearing $100 nikes among other things.

      Note: no charts were used in this analysis.

    • No, I didn't catch that. . . caught a big break with VRNG. . . up 20% on YELP IPO. . . closed right at HOD. Large blocks buying in. Huge volume. Still holding.

    • Nothing is 100% and SKUL is hard to trade because it is so thin and so heavily shorted and therefore easy for someone to toss it around. Did you see UBSS in there holding support with 161 blocks at 14.75? I guess that's why I'm not in yet; too chicken.

      On the daily, it closed under 14.93 with lower volume, but I can't argue with two white soldiers. It looks like someone wants to tag 15.10.

      My SWN short is working out.

    • Thank you. . . learning a lot here. I'm not adverse to selling quickly (not attached to stocks) when the time is right, but also willing to hang on longer than most traders. Let go of TEA WAAAAY too early during a period of stagnation.

    • The way it sounds, overall, you're winning the war. I'd say stick with your plan. You have a system, and until you're convinced otherwise you have to go with it. Or just sell 1/2.

    • Trying to decide whether to sell it now and buy it back at the retest or just hang on.

    • Okay, that's what makes a market.

      I would just add that on the weekly chart, price is pushing down with higher volume comapared to what it is going against the week of Jan 30th and what it will be coming into the weeks of Jan 23 and Jan 16th. Those volumes are significantly lower than what is being put in this week.

    • Thank you. . . I'll risk it, and I'll tell you why. This is what is going through my mind.

      The fundamentals on the stock are strong. This contraindicates a strong or lengthy downtrend. I would not risk this with a company showing signs of ill health.

      It is not normal for a company to show strong, consensus-beating signs of growth and have its stock constantly underperform.

      Stock falls more quickly than it rises.

      If it tests the lows, it will be back eventually.

      The stock is already heavily shorted.

      It held at @ 14 despite the most massive selling pressure the stock has ever faced.

      Volume is not high, but it is increasing.

      The price of the stock is undervalued and will eventually experience correction.

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