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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Oct 6, 2012 1:41 AM Flag

    Hat's off to Dr. Duru

    Finally, Seeking Alpha publishes a truthful article at the right time. Dr. D hit the nail on the head. I would just add to his observation of failed tests of the 50 and 200, that it also tested the high of Sept. 13th with 437k versus 2.8M and closed under it. Not even close, a dismal failure. And, the shooting star doji is a dead give-away to the stopping action.

    Dr. D sold out today; a wise move, but said he may buy the next dip. Well, sure there will be some pause at 13.25 but it will just be a hinge to lower prices, imo. I think he's trying to be kind, because I expect the full dip will be at a one to one extension to $10.42. A one to onepoint272 brings it to $9.29. Then earnings, but $12 will have become resistance, so his upside will be limited and the risk-reward won't work.

    Imagine all the stops just under about $11.75. If you don't think they'll be hit then maybe you'd also be interested in some WYY that forgetful is peddling. And when they get hit, phewwww, look out below. Just saying you may want to save yourself some pain asap, if you didn't already get out at the close today.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • One might tend to disagree.

      Dr Duru said he was long on Skul on September 20th-21st because of the sell-of and the fundamentals, and now he's saying he's selling his position. That's actually remarkable for an investor, selling at a gain of let's say 15% (max).

      Facts are that untill now:
      -earning targets have been met every quarter (in a young publicly traded life)
      -MA (50/100/200) have been quite horizontal with SP being in a range between 12 and 17.50. Not taking the MA upwards at this point doesn't mean anything
      -RSI is not overbought nor sold
      -Aroon down is giving buy signals. Aroon up has had some doubts ;-)
      -OBV on the short run is surpassing the positive OBV on the longer run

      The wedge down has to be broken, that's for sure. That's the signal I would like to see for the long run.

      Just some thoughts:
      Why does a CFO leave a company? Perhaps because he doesn't deliver on a SP that delivers greater value to the insiders (who actually own a lot of shares). The insiders perhaps are good at skiing, playing basketball, seeing how young people live and act (and buy), but they might be awful in accounting?

      Why does a company attract a new CFO? Off course to replace the CFO who left. And in this case, the new CFO has some experience in taking companies private. The CFO's first medium/long term aim will be creating shareholder value.

      Why does Dr Duru write this article (that imo you don't have to follow blind)? Is it possible that he needs buyers to take his short position off his hand? Or SA's hands? Or MS's hands?

      Just my opinion.

      All comes down to earnings on the November 1st

      Holding of fundamentals and techicals. Not affraid of shorts.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to cs917047
      • Dr. Duru is about as smart of a guy as onepoint...

      • The MA's are severely lagging indicators. The price could collapse and you won't get a signal from them until long after the event. The longer the MA the more shorter time frames it filters out and the longer the lag.

        RSI is indeed oversold. It is at the same level, ~50%, as at the last swing high of $16. You need to consider the background of supply. RSI should oscillate between 50% and 0% in a downtrend. You could have said it wasn't oversold at $16 too, but the price collapsed to $11.84.

        Aroon works well for a trending stock like say, Home Depot. SKUL has been in downward sloping trading range since the IPO. You just can't get reliable signals from a stock in a trading range with Aroon.

        I don't get your comment on OBV but what I don't see is a breakout in OBV. Many times OBV will break out from a trending channel before price. But I don't see that with SKUL.

        On your thoughts about the CFO: If they brought in a new CFO to help them take it private then wouldn't the goal be to drive the price down?

        Lastly, why do you think it all comes down to earnings in November? That's Baggie talk. Their numbers were supposedly good in the past, as you've testified, yet the price tanked. So, why should the earnings matter this time? What matters is where the big money wants to take it.

        I I suggest you just keep your eyes on the ball; on the chart. Since it got over all the recent highs and the high of Sept 13th on lower volume and closed under them all and printed a shooting star doji (large upper wick/tail) the obvious observation is stopping action and the obvious expectation is DOWN. If it doesn't go down, well then that will be valuable information about the strength. In the meantime I don't know why you wouldn't play it safe and get out and wait for the next buy signal. If you've got 100,000 shares to sell, well then that's a problem, otherwise you're pretty much free to get in and out at will. Why be stupid?