Michael, that impressive take-down was probably wave 3 (Elliott talk). You're probably going to take some additional heat on those additional shares.
Wave 1 was down and impulsive, on Fryday.
Wave 2 was up and reactive on Moonday.
Wave 3 was down and very impulsive, Tuesday morning.
Wave 4 was up and reactive, Tuesday afternoon.
Wave 5 is yet to come and should be impulsive.
Since wave 3 was extended, wave 5 should be a 1 to 1, or AB=CD, which would put it into $12.76.
However, if Wave 4 has a bit more left and can get up to the 0.618 retracement level at 13.91 on Wednesday morning, then Wave 5 should hit about $12.92.
Wave 5 should result in stopping action, but sometimes they morph into 9 waves
Just to be clear, you have to be looking at an intra-day chart to see the waves. Also, wave 3 was extremely oversold, so I can see what you were looking at, buying the dip, but again it was probably just wave 3. But, since wave 5's usually develop in oversold territory, they sometimes truncate.....meaning they don't exceed the low of wave 3. You should watch your indicators, like the 7-period Rate of Change. Look to see if its oversold coming into the wave 3 low. Of course and more importantly, watch the volume coming into that low to see if it is lighter or heavier than the low.
Honestly though I don't think wave 5 will truncate, the daily is a long ways from being oversold. Also, the up move of the last few weeks was on low volume until you get back into the bar of Sept 14th. The middle of that bar is......guess.....................
.............yes, 12.76. Amazing isn't it? That is where I may look to get long on the counter-trend bounce. But, that depends on how it comes in there.
maybe we can "wave goodbye" to all your waving november 6th....or maybe sooner when Q is released..Both would be a blessing as to a guy who lives by technicals alone..how bout them new polls..how's them technicals! Obummer looking like Big Bird more each day..a fool
I would like to average down again today but I already have nearly 5% of my portfolio in Skul.... What to do here? I have tons of extra cash however, but my intent is to save that for the 10-20% dip faber is calling for by early next year....
Any suggestions as to how to play this? November $10.00 calls?
Kevin, I never average down. I never add to a losing position. I only risk 2% in any one trade. That is, I first establish a stop price, then I know my risk. Knowing my risk on the trade and knowing I can only risk 2% of the total portfolio allows me to compute how many shares to trade. But if averaging down is your strategy then I guess it makes sense to buy at low-volume retests of the lows.