Not very encouraging is it? I would have hoped that professional shorts would continued to take profits before the end of the tax year. So......are the longs deep underwater waiting to take their losses after the new year?
Currently sitting on my hands waiting for test of 7.91....but in no hurry especially if I can get it in the 6's next year/week.
AAPL went straight up 802% from Jan 2009 to Sept 2012 and has so far only retraced to $501 or 32.5% of that move up. A normal, 61.8% retracement would put AAPL at $318.
Before the top was hit there was preliminary supply in May 2012 which printed a low of $522 on a monthly volume of 396.7M. In November that level was hit and rejected but with 461.8M which said it would be back down there. Sure enuf in December it hit it again and so far the volume is 409.9M. It is hitting support with heavier volume which says the higher probability is that support (522) will be broken.
It made a top with 328.5M and came off the top in October with 433.7M. Off the top with volume; not good. Then in November in crashed thru the low-to-high linear-regression line with 461.8M. The main message of all this down volume is that big money is exiting. They are selling to the general public who believe fundamentals are directly connected to stock price.
Look at any momentum indicator, RSI, MACD, etc on a monthly or weekly chart and you will see the obvious divergence between the price high of April and the higher high of August. The indicators made lower highs......HUGE bell ringing at the top. Trade it sure, but don't fall in love with it.
LF is an interesting and enticing play. Sounds like a great story, if you believe stories are in any way connected to stock price. But sticking to the facts, in one year, from Aug 2011 to Aug 2012 it went up 378%. It needed a correction and it's not done, imo. Since then, over the last 5 months, the chart shows big red bars and little green bars; downtrend.....with heavy volume down days, big sellers. So far it's corrected about 50% but it hit that level hard (with higher volume than the supporting candle of Feb 13th). On a weekly basis I think it needs to retest $7. If it gets under that with higher volume then it could go to $6 in a heartbeat and it would still be a normal correction.
On Friday it completed a little AB=CD up and tested the top of the high volume down-bar of Dec 12th and nearly tested the bottom of the very-high-volume down bar of Nov 6th. Friday's volume was much lower than either of those dates. But it did have a high-range close, so it might get a little more. Friday's intraday action was all up but the last 1/2 hour there was a lot of selling at the top; biggest volume of the day with no price progress = selling pressure.
Overall, I'm suspicious that it is for sale, but not "on sale". It came off the top with volume; something is wrong in Denmark. Maybe there is competition coming into the kid-pad market, who knows, but rest assured somebody knows and they are not telling; except for on the chart. When the big guys get out then they'll make it public.