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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2013 5:38 PM Flag

    Hey Onepoint

    Long time no talk... Howz it going?

    Still battling with SKUL??

    I've been out of it for 6-7 months and have no intention of getting back anytime soon. Are you looking at other names? I'm taking a hard hard look at the beaten down coal sector, esp. WLT. I already own Sep. calls and looking to add on a bigger sell-off. It is testing the 2009 lows as we speak... What do you think?

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    • Hey Picker, it's going okay, thanks. For any newbs, Picker was about the only one as vocal as me about warning of lower prices when this was at $16.

      You really need to take another look here Picker and get out of that WLT dog. I don't know what you're looking at but I don't see anything there to get excited about yet.. It broke thru another layer of ice last week on the weekly chart. Sure, it's close to the 2009 low of 12.10, if you consider another 19% lower close, but the 2003 low is 4.53.

      WLT has a float of about 56M. Compare that to SKUL's float of 18M within the same price magnitude. Which one do you think is going to move faster? It's like comparing a coal barge to a ski boat. Sure, WLT has 24% short but maybe for good reason.....Ol' Squeezebox Tom isn't on the board over there is he? SKUL now has about 11 or 12% short not in the 70's anymore, but just right now, just enuf over-shorted to fuel a break out rally.

      Okay, wait a minute, I just checked the monthly chart on WLT. Huge amount of churn in May; big volume with a small price range. Big boys are stepping in and absorbing all offers apparently. You might have something there. But good thing you got the Septembers because you know those guys not only have the 99% of the capital they also have lots of time to let it play out. It's their game and they might very well take it down to test that 12.10 low. On the daily it broke the B point with lighter volume, but not on the weekly. On the weekly it broke with 36.5M compared to 31.8M and 35.4M. It's a close call. On the brighter side it left an untested high-volume high at 20.71 on the weekly. That should get tested before it goes to zero; just kidding....about the zero.

      What am I missing?

      • 3 Replies to onepoint272
      • OP,

        SKUL might have broken down from the short term one month uptrend and is retesting that line again. If it can't break above 6.1 then I would get out.

      • Yep... PB was one voice I wish I had listened to back at 16!

      • Onepoint,

        Good to hear from you as well... SKUL has never had the love of WS and prob. will never have. The last few months have the epic run of all stocks with huge SI (SODA, FSLR, GMCR, NFLX, TSLA) and SKUL did nothing... Anyways, coming back to WLT.

        1) Coal has beaten to pulp and WLT has been especially taken to the woodshed (Way over done)
        2) WLT produces the best clean coal in the world and has been punished cuz of it's all cash acquisition of western coal in 2011 (resulting in big debt)
        3) Insiders put down $2 M last month buying shares between $17-$19
        4) The recent 10% decline was due to a meaningless downgrade of the coal sector by Raymond James last Friday and poor numbers from china
        5) Stock is down almost 90% down from it's 2011 highs.

        1) I agree the chart looks very scary in the near term, but take a look a the monthly chart from 2008-2009 lows. We are pretty much at the lows and have good chance of a decent 20%-40% bounce just to test the may highs.
        2) Look at the weekly charts, you will positive divergences on almost all indicators RSI, CCI, OBV, Ultimate oscillator, MFI

        Other factors:
        1) Institutional ownership was 102% as of Mar-31st, 2013. I understand that it is an old number and could be lower now, but that is big number for any stock.
        2) WLT has been on the radar as an acquisition target for 1-2 years now by the likes of BHP. If somebody wants to pull the trigger this would be a good time.
        3) SI is 24% and waiting to see the numbers tomorrow.

6.350.0000(0.00%)Oct 3 4:00 PMEDT