Just a few thoughts kicking around:
Nite will run from about 10 days before earnings from
whatever level it is at. So we have about 8 days after the
Greenspam stuff for the markets to stablize. After that,
Nite will make a a decent run. Nite is a good company
but has a narrow focus. If anything should go wrong
with that area, Nite could go south.
will be multiple interest rate hikes. You can take
that to the bank.
3. The markets (Dow,Nas and
S&P) are way over valued.
4. The Internet is
alive and well, however there are to many IPO's to suit
my taste. The pickings will be much
oriented. Sound, Video, E-commerce (business to business),
Health online (KOOP and HLTH as examples), and any
infastructure (hardware and software) for the Internet.
5. Look to Asia, South America, and Germany for some
of your portfolio investments.
about bonds. We all can make that in an 10
think of this?
look at daily charts for april
4-5 to 4-12 last qtr pre earnings move lasted 8 days
for the following stocks sch, amtd, egrp, ndb, sws
and nite. notice sws and nite sank and after nite
blows away earnings both take off again (sws owned 1.7
million shares of nite then).
every chart looks the
same for this period of time(4-5 to4-12). do you think
this kind of movement will occur again for nite if
they blow away earnings? your opinions greatly
appreciated nite long 31 pre split and holding till y2k
Mine will be short. I think that today could be a
little weak. But, the end of the day a rally will begin.
I think money managers know the market will rebound
after the fed meeting. They will begin getting back in
late today and tomorrow. With all the money on the
sidelines it will need to get back in. Institutions don't
want to sit on the cash during an uptrend. I see NITE
moving up good this week. Wed - Fri will be the big
move. We could see a 5+ day Thursday.
... Continued ...
AMTD (Ameritrade) is a
very interesting stock to watch since it will be
splitting 3-for-1 on Friday, July 2 after the bell. AMTD
will officially be priced at the split price on
Tuesday, July 6 after the holidays. Then it will continue
with its earnings runup until Wednesday, July 14. AMTD
is known to be capable of HUGE bursts in price just
before earnings. In April, AMTD went from $65 up to $188
in a matter of 3 or 4 days if I recall
This was supposed to be a VERY HOT play, but now
things are very UNCLEAR for AMTD due to the price action
and news on Friday, June 25. If you look at the daily
chart for AMTD 10 minutes prior to the close on Friday,
you will notice that it made a HUGE runup from $81 up
to $85 1/2 to finish positive for the day. Then AMTD
announced after the closing bell that it was issuing a
Secondary Public Offering of shares for $250 million to
Usually SPO's are a negative event
since it increases the number of share floating, but
AMTD had previously announced that it was going to
offer an SPO for $500 million. So the effect on the
share price (up or down) for Monday is unknown. If you
believe that this should have already been factored into
the price, then Friday's new should be interpreted as
good and hence the sudden last minute increase in
price. But in general, SPO's have a negative effect on
the stock's price so that would account for why AMTD
chose to release the news after the bell on Friday
(usually reserved for bad news such as earnings warnings).
Also interesting to note is that there are rumors of a
buyout of Netbank (NTBK) by Ameritrade. Could it be that
AMTD offered an SPO prior to its split runup and
earnings runup to raise $$ for a buyout of NTBK. Ricketts,
the CEO of Ameritrade, already sits on the board of
directors of Netbank. If there is any truth to this rumor,
then NTBK is a play, especially at the recent levels
that it has been trading at. Hmmm, very
I was going to make a major play with AMTD, but now
I will have to wait and see how the market reacts
tomorrow. For now, if I don't make a play for MSTR or MMCN,
then I will be waiting to catch NITE at about $48. I
may try to load up on some NITE options if NITE dips
low enough. I will be looking at July 55, July 67.5,
and August 50 call options. The July options are
cheap, but are risky since they expire on Friday, July
16, which is 5 days prior to NITE's earnings date.
Hopefully, NITE will start its earnings run early when AMTD,
EGRP, and SCH report their earnings. MMCN July call
options also look attractive, since the earnings date
coincides with the options expiration date.
predictions for Monday are:
Symbol Open High Low Close
NITE >> 52.00 53.00 47.50 50.50
AMTD >> 86.00 88.50 80.00 82.50 July
YHOO >> 147.5 148.5 139.0 142.0 July 07
>> 35.00 38.00 35.00 36.50 ???
40.50 42.00 39.50 41.00 July 16
I hope this
helps for tomorrow and the rest of this
Good luck to all NITE longs
It looks like tomorrow should be a down day with
the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide
what the interest rate increase will be. From what
I've seen on the message boards, a lot of people are
on the sidelines waiting to get back in either
Tuesday or Wednesday.
Most people expect the Fed
to increase the interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday
and possibly increase the interest rate again in a
month or two. The market may even go up slightly
tomorrow with people trying to get in before the pop on
Wednesday. The official announcement should be on Wednesday
at around 2:15PM EST. If things go as expected, then
stocks should ROAR at that time and the EARNINGS SEASON
will officially begin !!
I have sold all of my
shares of NITE and AMTD (bought on Thursday) and am
sitting on the sideline with cash. I only have NITE call
options (October 70 and October 80) at this time. Since I
am betting that the market is going down tomorrow, I
might be willing to pick up shares of MSTR and MMCN
(50%/50% ratio) tomorrow since these two stocks should
continue to go up even in this cautious environment. Of
the two stocks, I think MMCN is the safer and more
predictable play (note that MMCN reports earnings on July
16). But both stocks have at least one more day of
runup left in them. These are strictly short-term
momentum plays for me. I don't want these to divert me
from the real, hot plays for July
But, I will have to wait for the opening bell before
making that decision since there are too many unknowns.
If I do pick up MSTR and MMCN tomorrow, I will be
looking to get out before Wednesday afternoon. I DO NOT
want to miss getting back into AMTD or NITE by
Wednesday at 2:15PM (at the latest). These stocks will be
running up furiously once the buy signals are in place.
YHOO, AMTD, and NITE will all be stocks to watch
carefully this week.
Thanks. I should have clarified though. I am
planning to hold for sure (and add at the right time). I
was concerned that if jobless claims (friday) and the
NAPM (manufacturing report on thursday) come in worse
than expected, can we expect another round of bearish
bond rhetoric that will drag down the earnings
season/into the earnings season (people talking yet again
about another rate hike in August) like it did last