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KCG Holdings, Inc. Message Board

  • tidepooler tidepooler Jun 24, 1999 8:14 PM Flag

    Dear Nite fans,

    Just a few thoughts kicking around:

    1.
    Nite will run from about 10 days before earnings from
    whatever level it is at. So we have about 8 days after the
    Greenspam stuff for the markets to stablize. After that,
    Nite will make a a decent run. Nite is a good company
    but has a narrow focus. If anything should go wrong
    with that area, Nite could go south.

    2. There
    will be multiple interest rate hikes. You can take
    that to the bank.

    3. The markets (Dow,Nas and
    S&P) are way over valued.

    4. The Internet is
    alive and well, however there are to many IPO's to suit
    my taste. The pickings will be much
    less sector
    oriented. Sound, Video, E-commerce (business to business),
    Health online (KOOP and HLTH as examples), and any
    infastructure (hardware and software) for the Internet.


    5. Look to Asia, South America, and Germany for some
    of your portfolio investments.

    6. Forget
    about bonds. We all can make that in an 10
    minutes.

    IMHO

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    • Some Call It Brainless, Gambling!!! However, If YOUR The Only One Who Wants Something, Who You Gonna Sell It To. Be At The Right Price At The Right Time. The Herd Might Just Run Over You. JMO

    • think of this?
      look at daily charts for april
      4-5 to 4-12 last qtr pre earnings move lasted 8 days
      for the following stocks sch, amtd, egrp, ndb, sws
      and nite. notice sws and nite sank and after nite
      blows away earnings both take off again (sws owned 1.7
      million shares of nite then).
      every chart looks the
      same for this period of time(4-5 to4-12). do you think
      this kind of movement will occur again for nite if
      they blow away earnings? your opinions greatly
      appreciated nite long 31 pre split and holding till y2k
      problems start.

    • Allright BenScoring!!!

      VAL VENUS and Mr. BIG ONE are the same person! LOL!!!

      A99

    • month. BUY now! It's gonna be a LONG week for shorts!

    • Mine will be short. I think that today could be a
      little weak. But, the end of the day a rally will begin.
      I think money managers know the market will rebound
      after the fed meeting. They will begin getting back in
      late today and tomorrow. With all the money on the
      sidelines it will need to get back in. Institutions don't
      want to sit on the cash during an uptrend. I see NITE
      moving up good this week. Wed - Fri will be the big
      move. We could see a 5+ day Thursday.

    • ... Continued ...

      AMTD (Ameritrade) is a
      very interesting stock to watch since it will be
      splitting 3-for-1 on Friday, July 2 after the bell. AMTD
      will officially be priced at the split price on
      Tuesday, July 6 after the holidays. Then it will continue
      with its earnings runup until Wednesday, July 14. AMTD
      is known to be capable of HUGE bursts in price just
      before earnings. In April, AMTD went from $65 up to $188
      in a matter of 3 or 4 days if I recall
      correctly.

      This was supposed to be a VERY HOT play, but now
      things are very UNCLEAR for AMTD due to the price action
      and news on Friday, June 25. If you look at the daily
      chart for AMTD 10 minutes prior to the close on Friday,
      you will notice that it made a HUGE runup from $81 up
      to $85 1/2 to finish positive for the day. Then AMTD
      announced after the closing bell that it was issuing a
      Secondary Public Offering of shares for $250 million to
      raise money.

      Usually SPO's are a negative event
      since it increases the number of share floating, but
      AMTD had previously announced that it was going to
      offer an SPO for $500 million. So the effect on the
      share price (up or down) for Monday is unknown. If you
      believe that this should have already been factored into
      the price, then Friday's new should be interpreted as
      good and hence the sudden last minute increase in
      price. But in general, SPO's have a negative effect on
      the stock's price so that would account for why AMTD
      chose to release the news after the bell on Friday
      (usually reserved for bad news such as earnings warnings).


      Also interesting to note is that there are rumors of a
      buyout of Netbank (NTBK) by Ameritrade. Could it be that
      AMTD offered an SPO prior to its split runup and
      earnings runup to raise $$ for a buyout of NTBK. Ricketts,
      the CEO of Ameritrade, already sits on the board of
      directors of Netbank. If there is any truth to this rumor,
      then NTBK is a play, especially at the recent levels
      that it has been trading at. Hmmm, very
      interesting!!

      I was going to make a major play with AMTD, but now
      I will have to wait and see how the market reacts
      tomorrow. For now, if I don't make a play for MSTR or MMCN,
      then I will be waiting to catch NITE at about $48. I
      may try to load up on some NITE options if NITE dips
      low enough. I will be looking at July 55, July 67.5,
      and August 50 call options. The July options are
      cheap, but are risky since they expire on Friday, July
      16, which is 5 days prior to NITE's earnings date.
      Hopefully, NITE will start its earnings run early when AMTD,
      EGRP, and SCH report their earnings. MMCN July call
      options also look attractive, since the earnings date
      coincides with the options expiration date.

      My price
      predictions for Monday are:

      Symbol Open High Low Close
      Earnings Date

      NITE >> 52.00 53.00 47.50 50.50
      July 21
      AMTD >> 86.00 88.50 80.00 82.50 July
      14
      YHOO >> 147.5 148.5 139.0 142.0 July 07
      MSTR
      >> 35.00 38.00 35.00 36.50 ???
      MMCN >>
      40.50 42.00 39.50 41.00 July 16

      I hope this
      helps for tomorrow and the rest of this
      week.

      Good luck to all NITE longs
      !!


      INTERNET_STOCKS_RULE
      INTERNET_STOCKPICKER

    • It looks like tomorrow should be a down day with
      the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide
      what the interest rate increase will be. From what
      I've seen on the message boards, a lot of people are
      on the sidelines waiting to get back in either
      Tuesday or Wednesday.

      Most people expect the Fed
      to increase the interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday
      and possibly increase the interest rate again in a
      month or two. The market may even go up slightly
      tomorrow with people trying to get in before the pop on
      Wednesday. The official announcement should be on Wednesday
      at around 2:15PM EST. If things go as expected, then
      stocks should ROAR at that time and the EARNINGS SEASON
      will officially begin !!

      I have sold all of my
      shares of NITE and AMTD (bought on Thursday) and am
      sitting on the sideline with cash. I only have NITE call
      options (October 70 and October 80) at this time. Since I
      am betting that the market is going down tomorrow, I
      might be willing to pick up shares of MSTR and MMCN
      (50%/50% ratio) tomorrow since these two stocks should
      continue to go up even in this cautious environment. Of
      the two stocks, I think MMCN is the safer and more
      predictable play (note that MMCN reports earnings on July
      16). But both stocks have at least one more day of
      runup left in them. These are strictly short-term
      momentum plays for me. I don't want these to divert me
      from the real, hot plays for July
      earnings.

      But, I will have to wait for the opening bell before
      making that decision since there are too many unknowns.
      If I do pick up MSTR and MMCN tomorrow, I will be
      looking to get out before Wednesday afternoon. I DO NOT
      want to miss getting back into AMTD or NITE by
      Wednesday at 2:15PM (at the latest). These stocks will be
      running up furiously once the buy signals are in place.
      YHOO, AMTD, and NITE will all be stocks to watch
      carefully this week.

      Continued ....

    • maybe val and mr big went both decided to go golfing
      at the same exact time on the same exact golf course
      NOT !! busted

    • ben scoring but its not over ,mr big one has proved to be an accurate poster most of the times ,and is very fun at that

    • Thanks. I should have clarified though. I am
      planning to hold for sure (and add at the right time). I
      was concerned that if jobless claims (friday) and the
      NAPM (manufacturing report on thursday) come in worse
      than expected, can we expect another round of bearish
      bond rhetoric that will drag down the earnings
      season/into the earnings season (people talking yet again
      about another rate hike in August) like it did last
      week?

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