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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2014 2:32 PM Flag


    Last Q when SCSS warned they would miss I suggested SCSS' real problem is that people do not want their mattresses. I also pointed out that TPX told the street in early Sep at their investor day that things were going along right on plan except that labor Day was a bit stronger than they expected. They next reported a solid Q and TPX shares rallied from 39 to 47 and kept right on running until today…

    Part of the reason TPX jamming up 20% that day and another 17% on top of the $47 is while SCSS blamed the economy and mattress market for their the revenue and ebitda problems, TPX reported a rock solid recovery Q and shared their typical conservative but plainly brightening outlook on the new Sealy integration and being ahead of plan on cost saves and rev synergies…

    So today, we see the same dynamics at play… except now Greenlght Capital (Einhorn) and Kyle Bass' hedge funds are major longs and likely thrilled that puts traders think, as they did last Q, that SCSS' product and execution issues (again, laid off to blame the economy and retail demand for mattresses) must also be impairing TPX results…

    But just as with last Q, the shorts and those panic selling will soon have lots of time to repent the sell decision today… TPX is going higher -- a bunch higher -- as soon as TPX reports the Dec Q and updates their own guidance.

    Days until our jan CC PT of $60, and our new PT is $75 for 2014.

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    • Agree with you that TPX may be long term bullish but :

      a) It ran 70 % higher last year and every stock corrects. Esp run from 38 to 55 in 2 months needs correction atleast to 45-47 levels. Then further price action will depend on earning and guidance on Jan 20. If u listened to Q 3 earnings and financial conf on Dec 2: they clearly said: very few people buy mattresses during holidays.
      2. Unfortunately, the recent rally was very low volume rally and the manipulators tried hard to keep it above 5DMA with very low volumes.
      3. Heavily owned by hedge fund/ institutions, that is good initially but in long run when prices stagnate: big players sell and price goes down real fast. Look at 5 yr chart.
      4. PE is 42, very high for non momo stock
      5. If you look carefully why it rallied after last earning, it had really been beaten up with SCSS results and was oversold, so investors filtered the numbers they wanted to hear and ignored margin, international numbers , operation cost etc.
      6. 5 elliot waves have completed so ABC downwards is underway. May be 5 wave structure if earning fails
      7. Put call ratio today 3.5
      8. Block Buy/Block sell : 0.37 %

      expect a small upward movement in a few days followed by a hard fall unless the come with electric or flying mattress!
      And yes when the price goes down WE SHORTS WILL COVER AND RESCUE YOU!

      • 1 Reply to technimentals
      • Preface: "pro" traders who immediately bought puts and or shorted out or sold out long positions and or box hedged committed long positions for a day or three will soon be in full repent on this, just like they were last Q... were you one of the guys posting 20x a day here and calling me names for emphasizing the reasons we put on a huge slug at $38? LOL

        But your comments are at least thoughtful so I will reply on your labeling:

        a) If you want to focus on short term charts vs fundamentals and the strategic implications/opportunities of the "new" TPX, you should consider looking at longer term charts... A study of a 2 yr weekly on a good log chart will help you. Set your cursor to $50.50 and you'll see the importance of today's low. I'm not suggesting it can not go lower, but based on the players in the shares now, including us, it is likely that if the market is merely flat then the bottom for this bs drop is already in as of today. We don't play short term, but this is clear. Further, the stock did not "run up" to $55, it is recovering to $85+ -- the level needed to rebuild on the right side of a proper base with at least a few more weeks of long term consolidation following the collapse last year. As for the business and event weeks, we've followed TPX for years; this has always been a President's week, Memorial Day, july 4th and Labor Day party, but guidance is guidance. The upshot is that the framing given was based on their known shipments and sell through -- unlike SCSS, TPX's team (other than the new ceo) is rock solid.

        2. You evidently don't know much about Greenlight's Einhorn or Kyle Bass... these two are hitters and here for at least a double from the $45-50 core positions they have put on. So are the key disciples. LOL

        3. We are in the group you suggest create volatility. Those who sold out and piled in when we have over the years have made brilliant coin... retail holders who "buy and hold" rode this from $45 to $5 in 2008, then to cont

    • Wow… they missed their lowered guidance and still the stock is up 5%, even after guiding 2014 flat to lousy 2013. LOL

      Meanwhile, their report is all wonderfully confirming of TPX ongoing outperformance. See the short putzes run away to hide before tonight's release… how fun.

      TPX back on the move to recent high ($55) en route to $60+ this year (a 20% plus move), unless GDP picks up, in which case our PT is $75.

    • How are you short putzes doing here? Up a couple bucks since the drop already...

      See you all at $60 after the Dec Q cc, and $75 before EOY.


    • or you can short your gnaws off and hope Einhorn, Bass and I are all wrong. Stranger things have happened.

    • Even SCSS is rallying today. LOL

    • Nice new product additions, including Temper and the Stearns lineup.

      Read those press releases friends, TPX is about to blow the roof off the numbers.

      Shorts are effd... can't even break this down to the 50d on the meltdown bs already reversing. LOL

54.74+3.74(+7.33%)Oct 27 4:02 PMEDT