That's the best reason not to get in now. People that chase last years winners usually get burned. Van Wagoner Emerging Growth fund was up an eye popping 291.2% in 1999. If you had put $10,000 in on the first day of that year by 12/31/02 your "investment" was worth $4,419. Could run another 500% but history shows it's not likely. Sectors go in and out of favor, just ask the growth investors that own HD stock.
And gives us the opportunity to take our hard earned $$ and place them where they will do the most good. I love this country.
I don't understand your comparison's however. You are comparing the top of a 15 year advance and a 5 year bubble not seen since the South Sea, and Tulip thing, to advances by a sector recovering from a 20 year bear. The companies left are lean and mean, and the wake up of demand of value over paper promises could prove to be interesting to watch. At no time in history has borrowed money been easier to obtain and the average home buyer is 25. Some buying because it's easier to buy (no down payment, as it's rolled into the loan) than rent an apartment where we have credit requirements. Yes I own some.
This is a bubble because of huge credit expansion. The bigger it gets, the harder it will fall, and those who depend on it's expansion and take it as 'normal' will be hurt the worst. Many analists have never seen a REAL bear market even today. There is overcapacity worldwide and some companies NEED to go broke. It's nature and healthy. You speak of history but have only given 1 figure. $35 and 1935. That ignores quite a lot of 'action' as the economy has changed many times over those years.
I'm not a cheerleader for Gold/HD/SPX/EBAY/nor any others. Just pointing out some realities as I see them.
BTW, if you look back at the Silver price, that spike in early '98 was because Buffet bought. Near the same time, Gates (yeah the hi-teck guy) bought controlling interest in several mines. Look through history and do some homework. One ratio that is really important (if you are a long term kinda person or like to be on the side of major trends is the DOW/GOLD ratio) Do it and look at monthly/weeklies. Then bring your observations, I would be happy to discuss them.
The point of the message was simply that chasing last years winners rarely proves profitable. I did just use the 1935 statistic, so let's be fair and take the half way point between then and now. Gold was trading at $48 an ounce in 1972. Still does not look very profitable to me. As for as Warren Buffett buying silver in 98 I could find no mention of that in the annual reports. http://berkshirehathaway.com/annual.html
What mining companies does Bill Gates own a "controlling interest" in?