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InterMune, AŞ Message Board

  • stocknewby2004 stocknewby2004 Jun 2, 2004 1:04 PM Flag

    I honestly think it's over...

    I must first admit this: I don't know crap about picking good stocks and have little experience in investing.

    Having said that, I have watched ITMN since it's IPO a couple years back, seen it go up and down, up and down, up and down, but I think it's in BIG downturn for which it might not recover. Again, I am so "non-smart" with this stock picking gig, but I don't see this thing turning around and getting any kind of RESPECTFUL gains.

    My very weak and totally unsupported recommendation is to SELL this thing before worse happens.

    My only question is: How can such a good looking company with 2 rather good products be in such bad shape?

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    • Shares dilution confirmed!

      see press release

      InterMune Announces Results of Annual Meeting of Stockholders
      Wednesday June 2, 4:05 pm ET

      Keep buying at this level, Longs!

      I'll start covering and buying when it reaches my target of $n.nn per share. Pick your own number for 'n'.

    • Your question is a good one. The answer, I think, leads to a conclusion that this is a great buy for long term value investors. For someone looking to make money on the stock in the short term, it doesn't look too good. But if you're willing to truly invest (rather than trade), this seems like a good prospect.

      My view on this stock is that it probably will stay pretty close to the current price for the next year or so. There doesn't seem to be any reason for it to drop, nor to significantly rise.

      Basically, this company was a hot stock, with heavy speculation on the outcome of a phase III IPF study. Through 2002, the revenue for off label use of Actimmune in IPF was rising dramatically, more than doubling year to year. Investor expectations were that sales would continue to grow if the study was positive. The study results were mixed, and insufficient for FDA approval. Since then, sales have stabilized.

      One way of looking at this company is to say that InterMune I "failed", and InterMune II has recently been started. The new InterMune is less focused on short term sales growth, and is primarily focused on phase III development of the two good products. If these studies go well, and the new management continues to exercise good financial discipline, it's hard to see how the ITMN investors won't make a killiing.