Slangbangtowax makes great points (below). CUR could hit many pot-holes, and fail.
But, CUR does not have just one rifle shot. CUR has two compounds in four trials: NS-566 for ALS, Ischemic Stroke (China), and Spinal Cord Injury. NS-189 has theoretical uses for over a dozen issues, including Major Depressive Disorder which is (I read) a disease with between a $5.0 billion to $12.0 billion a year market that is dearly in need of a new drug/approach.
If you research Headlines on Yahoo for CUR, there was an Oct. 5, 2012 article by a Seeking Alpha contributor who analogized CUR to Genzyme. He wrote, "Sanofi bought out Genzyme for $20 billion for curing a disease that affects 35 kids a year. ALS affects 5,600, and it's just as deadly. How much is that worth? Of course, Myozyme and Lumizyme are prohibitively expensive ($300,000 a year) and need to be taken for a lifetime, and NSI-566 would be much cheaper. Sanofi of course had that in mind when they offered $20 billion for them." (Now, a commenter took him to task and pointed out that Genzyme had other products and that $20 billion wasn't just for that one cure. So, take it with a grain of salt. But, at a $20 billion buy-out, CUR is a $200+/share stock).
Peer reviewed published research on NS-566 at UC San Diego and UC Irvine; Dr. Eva Feldman; Ted Harada; enough cash for a year; partnerships with DOD and NFL Alumni. A patented floating cranula (sp?) delivery system licensed to some of the top hospitals in America. Cutting edge bio-tech solutions going right to the heart of the issue trying to fix the spine and brain, not nibbling around trying to address the symptoms.
Dilution, hedge fund manipulation, a patient death (some of these people are very, very sick), a fossilized FDA dithering while people wither from ALS, and we'll have hiccups. But, $100 / share may be a great buy-in if even 25-50% of the trials are successful.
I'm with you on this Medtrust. Seems very undervalued.
You are right on with your thinking .
CUR will be more than probably involved in cures for multi-billion dollar medical needs
Dr Feldman has been out traveling the world.making Neuralstem known .
A $100.00 share price will just be the 3 figure starting point for a short time .
Growing an unlimited number of cells. of various "flavors" invetro ( In a dish ) can be exciting .
If phase II were to go as well as phase I and show more efficacy I believe this stock sp could be similar to what happened to serapta. The good problem for trying to get an accurate price jump on this is If NSI-189 shows any efficacy from phase Ib and potential partners, or if there are no partners and Neuralstem is going to take this to phase II themselves. I think Garr has done a good job of raising money for CUR unlike what you see from other biotechs (cough actc) which wind up selling having to sell their soul for peanuts.
I appreciate your responses on this board. A rare long who believes in the company, does not have rose colored glasses on and isnt afraid to question things that don't sit well with him. I hope to be posting a bit more and look forward to REALISTIC conversations about the science and valuation of CUR. I love the potential here and am invested heavily at this point, but I have been around long enough to know when you have a group of retail investors talking about a $100 - $600 stock when it's trading at 1.80 that is a terrible sign. It almost never works out for the people who talk like that. Loving the science, but the investor base needs to grow up and take the glasses off.
This is going to be a long process, with dilution, possible FDA clinical holds(PSTI stem trial just halted due to 1 patient having a rash. This could happen out of the blue to CUR too with the dosing increase.) and market maker and hedgie price manipulation. It's good to keep your feet on the ground. Lets see what the 189 data looks like before we plan on buying a mansion on the coast.