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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • dio_71 dio_71 Dec 28, 1999 10:49 PM Flag

    Is anyone out there?????

    This board is too quiet and the stock trades too quietly. Does anybody really know what's going on?? Or are we all just complacent.?? Please somebody please post something.

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    • According to a post on the HAVN board, Crain's
      has reported that Astoria, Greenpoint and Queens have
      all expressed interest in acquiring Haven. How would
      you handicap this race? Is QCSB a likely buyer?
      History says no. But it's reasonable to think that QCSB
      doesn't have room for much more earnings growth without
      an increase in its share of the market.

      Based
      on your last post, my Wall Street career ran on a
      path somewhat similar to yours!

    • You've pretty much covered the rational
      possibilities. I would hope to see a deal in 18 to 24 months but
      Ficalora is independent-minded on this topic.

      I've
      seen some of your other posts. Do you focus on
      thrifts/banks or are you a diversified asset manager?

    • Not for nothing but i"ve seen the EXACT same post
      on another board; come on guy and let's get original
      here. How about something specific to this bank?? Do
      you think this bank plans on making it as an
      independant? or perhaps seeking a merger partner?? If so who
      might it be?? And what will be the catalyst for the
      impending merger & acquisition trend in this industry???
      They have a niche in the multifamily lending arena but
      so does ICBC and DCOM. So who will be the survivor
      in this market??? The status qou at these price
      levels is unacceptable....

    • Consolidation is the key force at work here. With
      that in mind, it doesn't make much difference if
      shareholders opt for a takeover at a small premium within the
      next year or hold out for more in 2001-2003. Why?
      Because if QCSB is taken over within the next 12 months,
      the obvious plan for thrift investors is to reinvest
      the proceeds in another attractive thrift, which will
      also very likely face a takeover in another year or
      two.

      Given that thrift stocks have fallen far from their
      peaks of 1998 as they were displaced by dot.coms and
      tech stocks, it's fair to say that predicting moves in
      this sector is tough. But one thing is certain --
      probably the best growth strategy available to thrift
      managements is mergers and acquisitions. And by remaining
      invested in this sector, investors will benefit from
      consolidation. Even if the market is luke warm toward thrift
      stocks, other thrifts will step in and make reasonable
      offers to acquire the businesses.

      As the number
      of attractive thrifts dwindles, the prices paid will
      rise if the likelihood of increasing earnings in the
      combined institutions is evident.

      I'll take a
      friendly takeover any day.

    • There is less downside risk with this thrift than
      almost any other. But what are these guys doing to "move
      forward?" Seems like more of the same and if that is their
      strategy then they should just say so and get on with it.
      I like the dividend but I think they (and others )
      should be developing an exit strategy for the time when
      this sector is in vougue again.

    • QCSB has a CEO who is willing to do what it takes to move foward. Big guy at JSB was ready to retire and move on. BIG difference.

    • I have a small position and was wondering why with the latest earnings announcements did the stock take a beating.
      Civilized replies only please.
      Thanks.
      PB

      • 1 Reply to pbconsultant
      • PBconsultant, it's my view that fear of
        increasing interest rates is taking a toll on this stock
        despite its healthy earnings. Money continues to move
        toward technology issues and away from many
        rate-sensitive stocks. The NASDAQ Composite is composed of 8
        subindexes. The Bank subindex is lagging so far this year,
        following a bad year in 1999. But the value is here in the
        banks and thrifts which earn healthy profits now and
        will do so in the future. Many internet issues will
        disappear over the next few years while QCSB continues to
        produce profits of stockholders and reward them with
        rising dividends. As always, the market is tough to
        figure out!

 
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