According to a post on the HAVN board, Crain's
has reported that Astoria, Greenpoint and Queens have
all expressed interest in acquiring Haven. How would
you handicap this race? Is QCSB a likely buyer?
History says no. But it's reasonable to think that QCSB
doesn't have room for much more earnings growth without
an increase in its share of the market.
on your last post, my Wall Street career ran on a
path somewhat similar to yours!
You've pretty much covered the rational
possibilities. I would hope to see a deal in 18 to 24 months but
Ficalora is independent-minded on this topic.
seen some of your other posts. Do you focus on
thrifts/banks or are you a diversified asset manager?
Not for nothing but i"ve seen the EXACT same post
on another board; come on guy and let's get original
here. How about something specific to this bank?? Do
you think this bank plans on making it as an
independant? or perhaps seeking a merger partner?? If so who
might it be?? And what will be the catalyst for the
impending merger & acquisition trend in this industry???
They have a niche in the multifamily lending arena but
so does ICBC and DCOM. So who will be the survivor
in this market??? The status qou at these price
levels is unacceptable....
Consolidation is the key force at work here. With
that in mind, it doesn't make much difference if
shareholders opt for a takeover at a small premium within the
next year or hold out for more in 2001-2003. Why?
Because if QCSB is taken over within the next 12 months,
the obvious plan for thrift investors is to reinvest
the proceeds in another attractive thrift, which will
also very likely face a takeover in another year or
Given that thrift stocks have fallen far from their
peaks of 1998 as they were displaced by dot.coms and
tech stocks, it's fair to say that predicting moves in
this sector is tough. But one thing is certain --
probably the best growth strategy available to thrift
managements is mergers and acquisitions. And by remaining
invested in this sector, investors will benefit from
consolidation. Even if the market is luke warm toward thrift
stocks, other thrifts will step in and make reasonable
offers to acquire the businesses.
As the number
of attractive thrifts dwindles, the prices paid will
rise if the likelihood of increasing earnings in the
combined institutions is evident.
I'll take a
friendly takeover any day.
There is less downside risk with this thrift than
almost any other. But what are these guys doing to "move
forward?" Seems like more of the same and if that is their
strategy then they should just say so and get on with it.
I like the dividend but I think they (and others )
should be developing an exit strategy for the time when
this sector is in vougue again.
PBconsultant, it's my view that fear of
increasing interest rates is taking a toll on this stock
despite its healthy earnings. Money continues to move
toward technology issues and away from many
rate-sensitive stocks. The NASDAQ Composite is composed of 8
subindexes. The Bank subindex is lagging so far this year,
following a bad year in 1999. But the value is here in the
banks and thrifts which earn healthy profits now and
will do so in the future. Many internet issues will
disappear over the next few years while QCSB continues to
produce profits of stockholders and reward them with
rising dividends. As always, the market is tough to