Is there some kind of deviant plot being
perpetrated on the shareholders of WCNX that we should be
aware of???? Or are they just people doing their jobs
for a potentially better employer???
enlighten us on your brilliant conclusions!
JAGfn.com Staff on DB Alex
Common share offering of 3.85 million completed and will
provide growth capital.
Many of us investors are on the same page and
that is great and I aplogize if I have not kept up on
various communications between posters. It is interesting
that the "doom and gloom" posters have been silent for
nearly a month.
Recent market activity has
validated that the waste market sector as whole was
undervalued. I have been pleasantly surprised at how quickly
the sector has rebounded, which exceeded my
expectations, although an increase was clearly inevitable. I
remain bullish on WCNX over the next 6 to 12 months.
Don't be too hard on Next based on current
favorable market conditions. I have followed this and other
waste boards for some time and overall I believe that
Next offered valuable insight that should be
considered going forward. I have certainly considered and
evaluated Next's comments before investing. Contrary
comments and views are very healthy to decision
However, as I have posted earlier, I disagree that WCNX's
and other waste Co.'s business plans were flawed,
rather I believe that investors expected too much last
year and over-valued companies.
sector price levels, I believe that several waste
companies offer great values including WCNX. Let's enjoy
the ride and learn from all perspectives whether they
project good or bad.
Overall, I am glad to see
many "intelligent" postings over the last 4 to 6
weeks. I had become somewhat discouraged by the trash
comments (that offer no value) as plagued by many waste
boards over the last 12 months. Let's share information
I will continue to offer my
opinion and insight as long as this board maintains
Next - I respect much of your postings. However,
I am not entirely in agreement with your assessment
of a flawed business model. I submit to you that
investors expected too much out of this business model and
over-valued stocks based on unrealistic expectations of
future growth. The decline in stock prices is not due to
a flawed model, but rather unrealistic investor
There are some unusual bad apples that tainted the
USA Waste's model was successful until it acquired
WMI. Their business model basically imploded on this
acquisition. They also discovered several billion in
write-downs in the closet. By the way, the old WMI did
"cheat" for 7 years by over-valuing landfill airspace and
not writing off project expenses.
model also imploded upon acquiring BFI. There is no
precedent for successfully integrating this type of
acquisition in the waste market as USA waste discovered.
Allied's problems are further compounded by its
acquisition valuation methodology that has mystified other
waste co. execs. Allied has "over-paid" for many
acquisitions and the result has impacted their balance
Other companies have not met earnings expectations and
have suffered in terms of stock price. This does not
mean they are losing money, they were simply
over-valued (as an example consider RSG which has a strong
The garbage business in terms of
demand has not changed that drastically as some would
like us to believe. The disposal demand is still there
resulting in strong collections and disposal.
beleive the business model can work if a companies are
acquired at a reasonable price. The question that each
shareholder needs to ask is: What is a reasonable valuation
of a company utilizing this approach?
They didn't always have to cheat to make their
estimates. The reason that earnings have eroded so badly is
a combination of market conditions and their
approach to market. Do you think that WMI cheated for 7
years to EXCEED EPS expectations? Do you think
Safety-Kleen was cheating to exceed the mark? No, they were
just trying to deliver as they once did.
market changed, but they didn't appropriately adjust
their business strategies. WCNX is selling you the same
broken plan, in a new wrapper. It won't work.
have nothing against wastecos. I am totally against
the sorry plan and anyone who would promote it. It
wipes out shareholders, employees and the rest of the
I rail on the plan because it will keep this
industry in the shitter as long as it's in place. Too bad
that management is too hard-headed to admit it. The
marketplace has spoken. I needn't give any more
Maybe I am wrong, but didn't WMI take the big
crash because of illegal accounting practices.
Reporting numbers that the market wanted to hear instead of
the truth??? And AW had trouble integrating BFI after
the merger and has been unable to meet expectations
on the street since, right???
if the two big dogs in the industry make blunders
that attribute significantly to the demise of the
entire sector, all the waste companies will feel the
If the younger companies coming
along now stay away from those kinds of 'blunders',
will they still collapse internally because of the
strategy in place??
Have a good weekend and oh by
the way, I enjoyed choice 'b' the most!!
WCNX is copying the exact plan which led to the
ruin of all those wastecos which preceeded them.
Refresher time. Multiple choice question.
wastecos are in terrible shape because of:
b) Technological advances by
Robot Waste Collection Consortium.
c) The sagging US
economy of the 1990's.
d) The repeated blunders of
management using a poor plan.
Is it possible that ALL
OF THE WASTECOS could be suffering due to a few bad
eggs in management? Nah, I say that's unlikely. It's
far more likely that the STRATEGY in place is what
has led to the collapse.
Since they share(d) a
common strategy, it is reasonable to assume that the
strategy is to blame. WCNX is a big proponent of that
Since we all have seen the results of that strategy
(Grow or Die), why should anyone expect WCNX to
overcome the inherent flaws? It always leads to failure.
Show me any long-term surviors of that
I'm sorry you misunderstood me. Your take was not
what I meant. My point is that WCNX stock was doing
just fine untill the blunders of other waste companies
bottomed out the sector which brought all waste stocks
crashing down to lows whether they deserved it or not.
Without rehashing on your disapproval of the way WCNX is
managed, I believe the company is making money and has a
good earnings forecast which they seem to be able to
My point before was why blame WCNX
management for the fallout of the entire sector???
agree that waste stocks aren't the best stocks to be in
right now, but I wouldn't count them out