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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 May 12, 2012 7:32 AM Flag

    Keeping Powder Dry


    Markets did exactly what I expected last week. We are headed lower for the major averages and RDN will most likely follow. If you believe in RDN as a long term story keep your powder dry and buy near $2.00. Overall markets are very weak and I see at least a 70% chance that they go lower from here.

    I have been 100% right so far regarding the technicals on RDN. I wasnt expecting a coordinated attack to these levels in January but the stock started to break down in late March.

    Overall bearish on markets but long term bullish on RDN

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    • I have learned over the years to not deal or talk about stocks in "Absolutes" because it blinds one to other possibilities/risks that can and do frequently occur on a random basis. "This will not happen" or "that will not happen" is not a good way to invest. IMHO.

    • We won't see any offering stock at these low stock prices, or under $10 won't work either.

      The solutions are slowdown writing new insurance or strong profits boosting capital;
      Combined with more reinsurance. The reinsurance relationships I have spoke of here already and I don't have time rightnow to rehash how it works.

      We could go on imagining many other things but, I have to sign off now.
      See you in the morning, or
      Hasta Manana'

    • I understand that but there can always been external factors that influence the forecasts. Company is trending in the right direction and insiders buying is a good sign but make no mistake.....RDN is a high risk high reward stock right now. Teh clouds are slowly going away and we should have better clarity towards the end of this year on several fronts. I think that they will need to complete an offering by the end of this year or early next but I hope mgt can get creative in how it structures it. ie. pay off maturing debt in 2013, refinance with a convertible debenture with less than 15% dilution to the common stock or warrants with a strike price much higher than current share price.

    • Loan loss provision fell by 38% in Q1 2012, sorry about that.

    • Sleest I will keep this message and see what will turn out on the 2qtr. What is your take on RDN to start appreciating. Are you seeing the book in the short term, let say 3qtr to end of 2012?

13.60+0.02(+0.15%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT