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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

  • jettrader49 Nov 25, 2012 3:33 PM Flag

    TG53 and His Delusional Prediction...

    Several months ago, TG53 made a prediction that Radian would be $20+ by December 31, 2012. Of course it was lame back then and is just as lame now. That prediction is not even close nor will it ever be reached in our lifetime. Of course, TG53 would never stand behind what he said (never does) and will somehow scuff it off. But he did make this prediction and now he is eating a huge plate of crow....

    Keep following TG53 the wizard as he keeps playing his flute down the path of disappointment and pain. TG53 is the ultimate fools fool and the CEO of rodeo clowns.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I'm more interested in your delusional obsession with TG35. You post about him nonstop. At least he talks about the stock itself. Daddy leave home when you were a babe or something? Brother beat you up and leave you to the wolves? Laughed out of the locker room in high school? Enquiring minds want to know.

    • jett you'll be very sorry shorting RDN. RDN is currently +81% y-t-d. and will probably close out the year up something like +150%, closer to $6. Next year RDN reaches double digits.

      There's an old adage in this business. Once a company or industry makes it past the worst of the recession, and makes it through, then that company or industry gets a permanently higher multiple as a result. The reason is simple and intuitive-- if a company or industry gets through the worst of times, then the left tail, worst-case scenario is given a much smaller probability, hence the multiple is permanently higher. MI companies that make it through (RDN), multiple of earnings is much higher than it was prior to the downturn. My guess is that with private industry being a much larger player in MI over the next several years, operating in basically an oligopoly-- then they will command multiples closer to 15X instead of 10X.

      RDN hits double digits in 2013
      RDN moves above 20 in 2014
      RDN moves above 30 in 2.5 years.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to cjdbs
      • jettrader49 Nov 26, 2012 6:56 PM Flag

        Yea yea. Do you know how long, long posters have been saying us shorts are going to be sorry. 25% short ratio must be all wrong. Even in an improving year for housing, short interest remains unmoved for the year. Sorry CJBS, your close to $6 by the end of the year is not going to happen. Your 2013 - 2015 prediction is well, lets just say, man will land on mars before those predictions are ever reached.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • What was your prediction?

    • He lost his mind. I told him it would drop to $3.75 in that 2 week stretch and I called it perfect. Made a ton off the puts.

12.90+0.18(+1.42%)Jul 29 4:03 PMEDT