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Morgan Stanley (MWD) Message Board

  • trader0670 trader0670 Jun 12, 1999 5:29 PM Flag

    looking to buy

    Looking to buy some MWD. Anyone have any opinions
    on when would be a good time. It seems like the
    upcoming earnings announcement will be on the upside,
    except I am a little concerned about that since MWD
    downgraded some brokerages. I hope this is not foretelling
    their earnings (maybe spent too much on advertising
    this past quarter). What does anyone think will happen
    to the stock price if the FOMC raise rates at the
    FOMC meeting at the end of this month.

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    • make tons of money, check it out! And the GREAT LINK isn't to bad either.


    • 20% grower, premier firm, past chance for bigger scandles to come out (pay off? ) so its up and away, what is a fair multiple for a 20% grower, shrinking their share basein BOOM times ??

    • Hey, Mr. Ktel: Weren't those stock picks actually
      for Michelle on the JWEB board? Or were they for
      Susan on this board?
      Oh--I get it--you're just a
      spammer, and your little angelfire spam page is just a
      bunch of . . .
      Oh well, be sure to say hi to Susan
      for me.


      * Institutional Money Flows: The Fed's decision
      to raise the Federal
      Funds rate by 25-basis
      points and adopt a neutral bias going forward
      a huge rally on Wall Street. Leading the charge
      were the
      disparaged financial stocks - MWD gapped
      $8 higher to $102 3/4,
      SCH leapt $9 3/4 to $109
      7/8, and JPM soared $4 3/4 to $140 1/2.
      cyclical stocks such as paper and chemical issues were
      weaker on
      Wednesday - IP fell $2 1/2 to $50 1/4, UK
      lost $3 3/8 to $48 7/16, and
      CHA declined $1 3/4
      to close at $47 7/8.

    • great sight for free pre-IPO stock:

    • No reason to comment about one day's trading
      activity in could be a ton of different things
      driving it......doesn't change the fundamentals though
      that BSC is a good, though niche, player that'll
      always trade at a discount to MWD/MER/GS.......If you
      look at the multiples, the "second tier" firms (to use
      the DLJ analyst's term) like BSC, LEH, they trade
      (and always will) at healthy discount to the Big

      As for Deutsche/BT....that's a mess - BT was already
      in the crapper, and Deutsche doesn't have a good
      record of managing firms they've acquired. Don't expect
      they'd be a serious competitor to even the second tier

    • .............................................................

      exciting stuff....

      Our new pick is MDI
      Entertainment - symbol MDIH - currently trading near $2.

      MDI Entertainment, Inc. (a fully reporting company)
      specializes in creating, marketing and implementing
      entertainment-based promotions to the North American lottery
      industry. More than likely you have run across some of
      their promotions at your local convenience store: MDI
      Entertainment's current lottery promotions include scratch games
      featuring properties such as Harley-Davidson, Star Trek,
      Wheel of Fortune.

      Revenues and profits for MDIH
      are on fire: For the most recent 9 months they
      created over $6,000,000 in sales, with over $1,100,000 in
      profits or .14 per share. These revenues represent an
      increase of over 400%. If MDIH comes out between .16 and
      .19 per share for the full 12 month period (which we
      expect they will), then applying a mediocre PE span of
      around 15 to 20 would be equivalent to a share price of
      near $3 to $3.75. A much higher PE (and therefore
      stock price) could be attained when the company becomes
      listed on a larger exchange (NASDAQ, AMEX, etc.). The
      company has talked of such a move.

      MDIH has some
      interesting developments that could help propel the stock to
      new heights: one of their new sites will enable lottery players holding non-winning
      tickets to purchase themed merchandise. The site will
      offer a vast array of different merchandise items
      associated with MDI's licensed lottery properties. The
      non-winning tickets will, in effect, be valuable coupons.
      Ticket holders will be able to apply the original price
      of the ticket for discounts towards the purchase of
      the merchandise available on the web site. Tickets
      can be aggregated for discounts of up to 20%.

      Recent news announced that New Jersey will be the first
      state lottery with an MDI web site. The state will
      receive 10% of the merchandise revenues. If all states
      begin moving toward some type of merchandise web site
      in conjunction with their lotteries, we would expect
      huge revenue increases as a result.

      MDI's new
      company site is located at

      A link to their SEC filings can be found
      under the section titled "Investors".

      Considering MDIH's fundamental value and exciting
      developments, we feel this company is a great short term

      If there are no Harley-Davidson (R)
      scratch tickets in your area, here is a link which shows


      I am assuming that momentum will carry this little
      gem towards the $5 to $10 range (imo).


    • Remember, the reason the long bond hit historic
      low yields in Oct was because the market panic
      created an enormous flight to quality into govies and out
      of corps and high yields. That same panic slapped
      the brokers down to fundamentally ridiculous values
      (which became apparent once the Fed eased in mid-Oct,
      the market took a deep breath, and anybody who bought
      a brokerage did very well).

      As you probably
      know, the market priced in the fed action today weeks
      ago, and indeed took the 25 bp move as great news
      (better than the 50 bp move, but more importantly was
      their "neutral stance" statement) - as we saw the long
      bond go under 6%. Bottom line however is consistent
      increases in rates aren't generally good for the brokers.
      That's why MWD, LEH and GS all warned on their analyst
      calls that results in the 3/4 quarters would likely be
      lower than the first and second quarters (they weren't
      saying the results would be bad, just below the record
      high clip in Q1 and Q2

    • did you hit on the nose or what? what a good day for mwd and the market!!!!!!!!!

    • maybe my chart is wrong, the long bond yield
      peaked at 440 or so in Oct. MWD bottomed in OCT @ 37 or
      so, now the long bond is 610 and MWD 95 ??? MWD is
      growing and doing it all right, if the fed raises rates ,
      I see the long rate going down, and stocks want to
      go up they are just waiting for the announcement,
      the worriers will sell there last little bit, and
      away we go UP. It would take 50bp to break the mkt
      which would be a buy anyway...buyers want in just
      waiting ...

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