I got a C note that says the 30 year Treasury is higher and the 30 year rate is lower exactly one year from now.
BUT...with so many people out there saying that the 30 yr is in a bubble and Uncle Ben is going to cause inflation, I will need some odds!
So if ya want a piece of my C note what odds are ya offerin' up?
TBT will be lower in 12 months...and I will put my money where my mouth is!
See the video on the bloomberg from PIMCO. Even Goldman Sachs said today there is no bubble in Treasuries. Rates are likely to stay low until the economy recovers, which is not going to happen whole of 2009
im pretty surprised, string. I thought you were bearish on treasuries.
I mean, what exactly will drive them higher?
Personally, I haven't any idea how they could go much higher unless they are forced down by the fed. Because it looks like credit is thawing, I don't think that will be happening.
They could go down for myriad reasons:
Inflation (huge increase in money supply)
Massive government deficit
Rotation to corporate bonds due to decreased default risk (there never really was a risk, it was a panic)
Failure of Obamanomics - subsequent issuance of yet more debt
Oil embargo as a result of Israeli conflict/Future Russian strategic maneuvering (they are obviously interested in cornering natural gas, for which I say if you can't beat them, then buy gazprom stock, ticker ogzpy.pk)
Other asset class becomes flavor of the week (new buuble forms)
the list goes on and on... i don't like your odds.
Truth is See, I don't have a clue what it's gonna do.
Pretty much everyone on this discussion board understands all the issues fairly well.
It's just fun to stir the pot.
I got into TBT so early I'm imbarrased to admit to it.
I figured I'd do better betting than investing.
You might be right. But how much lower? 15% is about it. How long will it stay that low? Not for more then a couple of years at the most. If so you that c-note will be worthless. You better buy guns, move to mountains and have ton of food. But that might still not be safe enough. Things will come back or you might as well commit suicide. Unless you like eating people. Because when things break down we will have to eat each other to survive. Good luck...