A lot of us wonder if TBT price is manipulated. As others point out there should be a positive correlation between rise in stock price index and TBT. But that has not been the case since 8/19 and 8/20.All of a sudden today TBT spikes up $1? Is this hedge funds action, a lot of institutions finally dumping Treasuries to get into stocks? Triple witching hour expiration.Next week, TBT probably head back lower. TBT still looks like a trading range, with a high price of <53.Just my 2 cents.
If you look at a long-term chart, TBT has been a good leading indicator of the stock market by 30-90 days. Is it being manipulated. That's always possible to some degree but treasuries are a very big market. Hard to control it I think at least for a long period of time.
Charts for TBT and S&P500 in sync, like you mentioned 30-90 days, but not on a daily basis.Unfortunately, TBT has limited upside potential. Returning to 70 is like the S&P500 going to 1300+. Very unlikely and won't happen in the next 4 months, is my guess.TBT and SDS are trading stocks and unrealistic for TBT to double in price, although Treasuries are at record low yields. There is no inflation for at least another 12 months.Look for TBT to go to 52 or so next week, then reverse course. Stock index went up too fast last week, despite 8/17 exception. Don't want to get my hopes up too high.
Spiked on the Bernanke speech
Spiked on housing data... not on bernanke.
If Big Ben is correct, the recovery is at hand. This will mean that the Feds will be withdrawing stimulus, raising rates, etc. All this should be good for TBT.I'm still worried about high unemployment, which leads to lower consumer spending, more credit card and mortgage defaults, etc. If oil stays this high, I can't see the economy recovering.I'm especially concerned about the small and medium banks, who hold a lot of this credit, and that credit is underwater. We have record numbers of bank failures, and the FDIC is broke.