Ok agree, at some point we get long holders bunkered down and supportive of price low 30's / high 20's is target range. You may have to hold this thing for 36 month for profits, but its a nice hedge on the over bought T-Bills. Gold money may end up here at some point, stay the coarse.
"You may have to hold this thing for 36 month for profits" ========================== You totally ignore the significant decay factor in TBT. Even if interest rates don't drop any more, TBT will decline significantly--just look at interest rates and TBT pricing a year ago and today. Treasury interest rates are comparable, yet TBT has droped from 52 to 31. THAT IS DECAY.
Can only use TBT for very short term (days and weeks at a time) expectations of slight interest increases (i.e., Treasury selloffs) in this market. Sell each little pop, let it decay back (or be driven down by fear again, like today) and buy.
Don't even imagine you can hold this for even 6 months in the current environment and dream of making a profit. I should know, I was burned big time trying this in the last year.
Stupid me did buy a little TBT yesterday and down a dollar already. I should have waited out the Fed and the immediate market reaction. Just too many unknowns there to burn you.