End August Low, High Mid-Sept, What Will October Bring?
Fed first announced QE lite early-August. Treasury auctioned bonds late August, and Fed openly bought. End August TBT hit low, but had moved up to $34 by mid-Sept. Fed reiterated QE threat mid-Sept, Treasury auctioned bonds mid to late Sept, and Fed openly bought. After Sept FOMC threat, through Sept Treasury auction, TBT dropped to Sept lows. Between early and mid-October there is a window where TBT could rise without Fed adverse impact. The Sept TBT low was $1 higher than the August low. That could set up a higher peak price than the $34 hit mid-Sept.