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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Message Board

  • luke_up luke_up Apr 21, 2012 11:42 AM Flag

    big money's game

    Guys, this is not just Bernanke's work (and boy, has any man caused me more grief than that one for the past 4 years). This is the big money who follow his moves, and more. They move the market and the market cannot move without them, and they know it, despite you and me seeing the yields-rising writing on the wall (that wall may well be a year or two away, btw.). Their game now is this incredible, unwarranted, imo, perceived safety of the dollar, due to the issues in Europe, and the expectations for more resilience and strength to come. It's like nothing else exists. They sell everything related, treasury yields (inversely), grains, metals, hard assets that should otherwise have a higher intrinsic value. But no, this is the game now and will not go away any time soon (as Europe will keep rotting) until inflation here at home will kick in down the 2013 road.

    Right now the big money has no place to go and works hand in hand with Ben to finance the US gov't with ultra low yields. My only hope is that the yield and TBT will stay in a range and not slide on a lower leg down. I tend to believe that the downside is limited and that the Japan analogy is not feasible. US is not Japan. Their people are more patient, subdued, resilient. This people is a combination of smart, opportunistic capital eager to grow and a consumerist, brainwashed herd. I just don't see it staying put in a long decline, though it could happen.

    The dollar is the game right now and we can't fight the big money however irrational it might seem to be.

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