OK, before I start let me say that I love BIDU and I have made a lot of money with this stock for years. Let me also say that I expect a market correction before the end of the year that will eventually take the S&P below 950.
Let's just analyze BIDU. The stock has run up 780% from $10 to $88 in 21 months which is spectacular but justified I believe. Then came back down to $76. Nothing unusual again.
My problem comes from what happened in the last 3 weeks. After a 21-month advance of 780%, it is very suspicious for a stock to climb $26 (or 34%) in 3 weeks and actually climb above its upper trend line on a log scale. (the log scale part is actually quite important). This means that BIDU is actually accelerating its ascent.
I refer you to Chapter 10 and 11 of William O'Neil's book "How to make money in stocks".
After a large, long advance, when a stock accelerate its momentum and climb above its trend line on a log scale, it is time to sell. This has all the signs of a CLIMAX TOP.
With the dreaded month of October coming, I think it is time to tighten up your stops.
I am not telling you to sell but I do want to point out the possibility of a CLIMAX TOP in BIDU and other issues.
What do you think?
Very thoughtful response... not.
At least try to engage on his level if you're going to bother to reply. Leave the insults to the other threads. I think we're getting a lot of early morning excitement, but unlike the last two sessions which were continuous downward moves all day, this is a big early morning bounce which should fade out as the day players sell.
We're a lot closer than when I made the call last Monday. And in case you haven't noticed so is BIDU.
Enjoy your 3 hour bounce.
I'll wait until the end of the session to make my analysis of price volume action for the day. It is looking like a nice bounce so far but it will look a lot weaker if it only closes up $1.
You remind me of the poor Texas Longhorns last Saturday who were celebrating every defensive stop like they won the superbowl while they were down 14 points. No need to say the Mighty Sooners took care of business.
I shorted BIDU on Thu. 9/30 afternoon after it bounced back from morning selloff. With good hindsight 9/28 was definitely a short-term peak. But whether it will turn out to be an intermediate or even long-term peak is still uncertain. For one thing, the daily volumes of the past week, either up or down, were not that significant. It is too early to judge whether it will follow the steps of CREE.
I find it hard to believe BIDU will increase customer market share to justify it's 150 P/E.
There is Competition from other search engine.
And "MOST IMPORTANT" China Mobile's new search engine "BIG BROTHER" which is owned and controlled by china's government is coming to compete and possibly take over the search engine market in China.
Who's buying the CLIMAX TOP now?
Usually people are very reluctant to admit their mistakes. I am probably guilty of that too.
Guess what what you can make money in the market being wrong two third of the time as long as you cut your losses short.
This is one of these times. At some point you have to recognize that a stock has topped and is under distribution. BIDU is already down 11% from it's Wednesday open !!!
If you want to talk TA which was the starting of this thread, there's a gap that BIDU is trying to fill down to $95.17. Previously BIDU had a range of $12.26 from $88.32 to $76.04 when it then went on a $31.00 run. So to see BIDU backing and filling from $107 down to $93.00 should not be considered unusual.
Thats't not to say that with the benefit of hindsight I may be proven to be wrong. You can't foretell the future, but you can look closely at the past.
http://w w w.amazon.com/gp/product/0071752110/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_2?pf_rd_p=486539851&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=0070480176&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=137B6ZHKG86H644E5CD2
I put spaces between the www