SAN DIEGO, April 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXWL - News) announced today that it has signed a contract with Shanghai Urban Electric Power Investment Development Corporation (SUEP), granting SUEP a license to manufacture and market ultracapacitor products based on Maxwell's proprietary large cell and multi-cell module technology under its own brand in mainland China. The contract, which also obligates SUEP to source ultracapacitor electrode material exclusively from Maxwell, has a six-year term, renewable by mutual agreement.
>>I don't think the Oil commodity rise is a bubble, but I would agree that the metals market is a bubble as well as probably Uranium.<<
Oil is close to going into a production/consumption imbalance, but is not yet there. An upset in the Middle East, nigeria, Venezuela, etc. could change that. At that point, the only thing between us and a shortage is the world's various corporate and government stockpiles. However, if you segment the "petroleum market", you can see that the real immediate shortages are for sweet light crudes (Such as WTI) and refined products and distillates. Heavy sour crude is more difficult and expensive to process.
Uranium is in a genuine shortage, as of this year. Demand has been outstripping production for years, and the various overhangs of supply are either running low, or governments (Particularly Russia) are starting to realize that they need the stuff too, and may not renew their current deals, such as the "Megatons to Megawatts" down-blending of weapons-grade U to reactor feed-stock. The recent flooding of Cameco's Cigar Lake mine has set that project back at least 6 monts, and there were plenty of people counting on that production. I would not be at all surprised to see the spot price of U3O8 up another 50% this year.
Other metals have to be seen on a case-by-case basis. Zinc looks like there will be a tight market this year. Copper may be overpriced. Or it may not. Same with iron and steel These depend on China's economy powering ahead. If China slows, these will take a tumble. Molybdenum will be in very high demand once the Trans-Canada pipeline, and a couple energy projects in the FSU get underway. Silver also appears to be in a supply deficit situation, with above-ground stocks running very tight and a futures "short" position larger than worldwide know inventories.
This oil crisis is differnt from the 70's. There was huge overhang of oil supply comming on-stream in 70's (North Sea, Alaska, gulf of Mexico) and that undermined Opec's ability to control the market. If you look at oil exploration size of fields vs date discovered, we hit a peak in discovery in 60's as I recall and we have been finding less than we use for long time.
I don't think the Oil commodity rise is a bubble, but I would agree that the metals market is a bubble as well as probably Uranium.
The trend will be for electrification of the automobile. I think MWXL is well positioned, the only question is do they have good enough proprietary position to make money.
I own MXWL so I'm hoping they are successful.
YUKOS have to bestopped because it began to play Russian parlament to his own advantages. Putin is well-trained KGB troublemaker. He built reactor to Iran and now enjoy high profits from soared oil prices. This is his way of politics. But enough of politics.
Government insentives have low efficiency, as any government spending. We just does not have another tool in some situations. Eventually some of it works: for example Clean Air Act.
Export oil tax - I posted this idea couple of weeks ago too! It is relly time for America to wake up from periodic slaps in the face from OPEC. Note, that conveniently enough neighbor oil producers - Canada and Mexico (but not Venesuella) will be excluded from this tax due to NAFTA agreement.
Not sure how any of this stuff is going to help the bottom line at MXWL...Nice backdrop, to be sure...But this has been known for some time.
Mr. Market wants to see real contracts and/or real guidance from the company. Until then, this is all for naught.
Remember that most of the major oil producers are run by dictators not crazy muslims. When Putin saw the need to control Russian oil profits he just took Yukos back. The dictators rarely cut off supply since it is dangerous to them (ie Hussein). Chavez is a crazy but he would not even think of cutting off our oil. As to incentives, the government screws them up all the time. Right now there is a 7 billion incentive that congress is trying to take back because of all the oil profits. The biggest incentive is $75bbl prices. What the government needs to do to lower prices and increase production is cut regulation.
Very thoughtful post -- thanks. IMO, the new wild card in the oil suppliers' wishes for stability is those fundamentalist Muslim crazies now running Iran and probably Saudi Arabia within a few years. This is why we need to wean ourselves as quickly as we can from foreign oil. Shale oil and coal to liquids both seem to be viable options -- maybe even ethanol should be tossed in the mix. What this country desperately needs and presently lacks is the governmental will and strong leadership to put market incentives in place that will really accelerate major investments in these domestic energy sources. Incentives could be complex or something as simple as a large imported oil tax.
My two bits worth -- Hammer
>>This is why I like MXWL since it is a disruptive product that does not depend on a single energy technology or fuel to succeed. If you bet on alternative fuels you are subject to the whims of the market.
Exactly on point Andy. This is a new generation of energy efficiency that we are just learning how to exploit. Whatever the storage method, regenerative braking and other methods of energy capture will require something to store it in. THe engineering world has to be retrained to exploit it. But just like in the 80's where we saw big efficiency gains, we will see big efficiency gains in the next few years based on regenerative braking alone.
I was an institutional oil analyst back in the mid 70's when everyone thought oil was going to $100bbl and the Arabs were going to rule the world. Not much has changed except now it is the Chinese who are going to rule the world (the Japanese failed). What is most important to consider is that as long as there is no catastropic disruption of the oil market oil will tend higher over the next fifty years as it is generally replaced by efficiency (MXWL) and alternate sources of energy (solar ,wind etc). What is most important is the political and military power of the users vs the suppliers. The US and developed countries will not stand for disruptions of supply or prices that disrupt their economies. The suppliers know that or will be told that (ie Iraq). For the most part the suppliers are weak and the users are strong. If a country such as China tries to disrupt the system there will be big problems. War is possible--just remember that Japans grab for resources pre ww2 caused us to shut them down by cutting off their steel and oil and that resulted in war. The worst thing that can happen to a oil investor is price disruption--that causes government action and that is always bad for oil companies. The big international oil companies know this and so do the oil states. This is why I like MXWL since it is a disruptive product that does not depend on a single energy technology or fuel to succeed. If you bet on alternative fuels you are subject to the whims of the market. Remember after the 70's oil crisis oil went back to the $4-6bbl range for a number of years and all the oil shale etc ventures went down the tubes. We are in a commodities bubble now and bubbles always (always) burst.