Don't know if this has been mentioned earlier, but the eps for 2012 has been raised to $.82. Put a reasonable 20 pe on that equates to $16.40. These bid deals also tend to move business to HIL as well, as they have leverage/flexibility in their negotiating of contracts.
The only problem is that HIL has had a lot of troubles meeting or exceeding earnings targets in the last couple of years. Every now and then they hit a quarter where they exceed an estimate but the often miss badly. HIL has very unpredictable cash flow because collections of booked revenue doesn't always happen. It may not get any easier, this new contract is in Iraq; look at what happened there in the last 24 hours.
Nothing ventured nothing gained I suppose. Risk is something you have to deal with. It's the price you pay for potential profits in the stock market, or when you get behind the wheel of your car to go to work for that matter.
This will clearly outperform the S&P as long as the Iraq contract goes through. That will amount to several years of massive gains in revenues (and probably earnings) and establish the company as one that's capable of handling multi-billion dollar projects.