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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • snotwheel snotwheel Mar 18, 2008 1:16 PM Flag

    The Snot Wheel - Tues Mar 18 intraday


    We lightened up on MOS, POT and DBA this morning. Considering the Dow is now just 250 points from the top of its channel, and only 100 points from the 50dma, we have to follow our rules of sticking with the overall trend and decrease longs and add Ultrashorts.
    Of course we don't know where the market will go after the Fed cut today, but we suspect that with 100bp factored in, there can't be much upside suprise. We could get killed doing this, but we now have more exposure to Ultrashorts than to long positions. Just added more FXP at 103 to replace the 20% we had sold near 118. We will add more if the market rallies after the Fed's decision. This will either be the most profitable trade of the year for us, or death to The Snot Wheel.

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    • My figures were wrong. Buy order was at 100.01. Day's low was at 100.11. Math screwup. Missed by a lousy 10 cents. Shoot. God bless me.

    • I don't know what is more hilarious, missing a buy into FXP by 33 cents (intraday low was 100.44) or actually being in FXP if I had set my price 34 cents higher. There but for the grace of God, I would have been in BSC too on Friday, if I were not such a cheapskate. OT, I think we should rename this board the FXP/FXI discussion group. F**k LDK. It is a mere proxy (Munchausen Syndrome by proxy) into much bigger, and more important issues. LMAO.

    • Your childish act like magalomaniac, don't you?
      This stock will be another bidu as poly plant finish as scheduled or earlier.

      Earning will be 500% higher than last year, sunny as I wrote it. It will be just beginning and more coming as all capacity 16,000t run FY09/10. Shortie always excuse,,,


    • I doubt it. Well obviously you are not up to making your own investment decisions. You rely on snot. Pretty sad, you are likely another lemming to be lead to slaughter.

    • capitulation in financials perhaps but volume was low.

    • Snot,
      Have you alread added the Ultrashorts?

      • 1 Reply to alb1309
      • I'm thinking here a .75 point cut is what we get heres some more insight ...

        Expectations on the market reaction- If Fed cuts the full point as most expect (Futures have been fluctuating between 90-96%) we would expect the markets to rally with some profit taking heading into the close. If the Fed cuts the point it would once again suggest that the Fed is playing to the whims of the market as well as suggest that the issues at hand are much more serious. The gains we have seen from the past few days will be given up eventually and we will test new lows. The dollar would continue to set record lows but would likely bounce as this rate cut is very likely priced in and investors will be viewing it as hitting a bottom (at least for the near term). In the case of a 75 bps cut we would expect the markets to be pretty choppy with the initial reaction to the downside. Complaints that the Fed is not acting quickly enough will be heard with others on the flip side arguing that the Fed already did their fair share with the auctions. A 50 bps cut would cause us to sell off severely but there is a good chance we would rally into the close as investors would take it a sign that the economy is on stronger footing then thought and does not need to be subsidized by Fed rate cuts. The dollar would be the biggest beneficiary here and would have a strong rally.

    • IMO the market is gonna flat line for the next few weeks as capitulation occured yesterday on the biggest fear day in years. Todays 300 point rally is rather generous and probably half of this gain could get halved by market close as people sell the news after the cut is announced. FXP could trend up a few points to the 107 area by close. Come tomorrow you will see a 7-10 point gap down as China and Hong Kong rally from oversold conditions.

      There is no catalyst to move the market up or down at this point in time short term. You will see volatility rerturn to normality. Days of easy money are gone as market direction will no longer be easily predicted.

      Only thing for certain is FXP will lose 10% points in the next week on asian markets rallying from oversold conditions and 1 day event of trailing US equities which are up considerably today.

      Only event that could derail that prediction is a 1/4 - 1/2 point drop. I'll cover at 110 then sit on cash till a new opportunity arises.

      My 2 cents which most people wouldn't buy for 1 cent since opinions are just that, "opinions", derived by ones own logic.

    • Wish you good luck with the short trade.

      Any idea about LDK - other than the fact, that they don't understand the importance of PR? No news - the stock goes down.

      I also know that we are still trading in a channel - the way it looks, we will soon test the bottom line again.

      But maybe, you have some other helpful idea.

    • LOL

      Anymore drama in that speech and I'd think it was a soap opera.

    • Now Snot thats a scary thought ... thinking real hard here of going long on FXP

      Roll the dice ... even if they do cut I think the markets still tank

      Just my opinion

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