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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • phreecash phreecash Feb 22, 2011 6:16 PM Flag

    Rebuttal - Fine tuning

    Many of you have had a chance to review the 2011 White Paper:

    In response to the assertion of $120/kg poly price, it does not matter in the final analysis. To some of you this may seem wrong, but I assure you it is not. I think that my reputation is intact and I will explain why it does not matter a whole lot.

    1)The amount I have in sales is small compared to the total poly manufactured.
    2)The remaining poly is diverted to wafer production where it is immune to market ASP.
    3)LDK has arrangements with Taiwan to supply cells in which case the total sales of product should be greater than LDK wafer capacity spread across business units that consume wafers.
    4)Todays news, ramping the 2 GW adds another 1 GW perhaps in wafers, maybe less by 1/6 of 1 GW if one assumes they are starting now rather than in January

    I'm sure you all see the numbers and the math behind it as I've taken the liberty of providing the data. I'm sure many of you are adjusting the poly number down and thinking about the effect. However, in doing so, third party payments, taxes increase, diluting the monetary gain.

    I think the current revenue guidance is now low as LDK is adding 2GW. I think I have to break with guidance after this announcement as I would have to adjust ASP numbers down to levels that do not seemingly agree with market conditions. (Poly and Wafer and Cell ASP is rising in the middle of Q1 projected to be the slow period by analysts)

    It is a very bullish statement here especially in context with China SPWRA, YGE, JASO stocks that have in theory been subjected to downstream demand.

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    • Pumper Doh trying to be sarcastic , now what say yeeee

    • This being the case, a revision to account for additional 2 GW should be forthcoming.

      Regarding reputation, I've spent a year redeeming myself. Reputation is earned, the year is far from over and as I noted, poly sales takes the ability of the product sold to keep cost of wafer low. It all pretty much cancels. It is a bit of "What business unit do you want to show the margin of the actions taken"

      I hope you understand. In simpler terms:

      If I make a buck by selling product A, or use Product A at cost in product B, then I still get my buck by not having to buy product A to support product B manufacture when I sell product B.

      Am I clear?